On Sunday, Feb. 5, at 6:30 p.m. ET, the Patriots and Falcons will kickoff in Super Bowl LI. The game will air live on FOX and FOX Sports GO from NRG Stadium in Houston, TX. Joe Buck and Troy Aikman will serve as the game’s color commentators with Erin Andrews reporting from the sidelines.
With the game only one week away, here are my 5 predictions for Super Bowl LI.
Prediction #1: The Falcons Defense Will Struggle
- Yes, the Falcons have been on fire as of late.
- Yes, their defense has been solid in holding opponents at bay during the playoffs.
- No, this will not continue.
Dan Quinn, the Falcons’ new head coach, has been in this spot before. As the former defensive coordinator for the Seattle Seahawks, Quinn has been to three of the last four Super Bowls (including this one). While Quinn knows how to ready a squad for the big stage, this season is different. It is unlikely that the current Falcons defense will be able to hold off one of the league’s highest powered offenses.
In 2013 & 2014, Quinn’s Seahawks ranked 1st in NFL in yards allowed giving up a stingy 270 yards per game. Both squads ranked 1st in points allowed, too, giving up only 14 and 16 points per game (respectively). The self-dubbed “Legion of Boom” ranked first both years in defensive efficiency, as well. Simply put, the defense was the league’s best.
This year is a different story. Compared with Quinn’s Seahawks teams, the 2016 Falcons are surrendering a full 100+ more yards per game (370 YPG) and 10+ more points per game (25 PPG) during the regular season. They finished the season as the 6th WORST in defensive efficiency. And while the playoffs have been a bit better (330 YPG and 20 PPG), they haven’t exactly faced a Patriots caliber offensive attack.
Let’s also not forget Quinn’s elite defense struggled to stop Brady in Super Bowl XLIX. Brady finished the game with a 101.1 QBR, completing 37 of 50 attempts for 328 yards and 4 touchdowns.
Quinn may be able to build the league’s next best defense, but it won’t be ready for this Sunday, Feb. 5th. The Falcons can only hope to slow the Patriots, not stop them.
Prediction #2: Defense Wins Championships
“Bend, But Don’t Break”
This has been the motto for the Patriots defense all season long. While the Falcons represent the toughest test offensively thus far, the Patriots defense has been surprisingly (and quietly) effective. The Patriots finished 16th in the league in defensive efficiency, 8th in the league in yards per game (326 YPG), but 1st in points allowed (15.6 PPG).
The Patriots’ defense has the ability to shut down a player (or two) and force the opposing offense to beat them while playing outside of their comfort zone. In the divisional game, the Patriots held Lamar Miller to a total of 73 rushing yards, forcing Brock Osweiler to throw the ball to win. We all know how well that ended. In the AFC Championship Game, while lucky that Le’Veon Bell injured his groin early, they yet again stuffed the run. Before exiting, Bell only managed to put up 20 rushing yards on 6 carries. The Patriots limited his replacement, De’Angelo Williams, to a total of 34 yards on 13 carries thereafter.
Matt Ryan and the Falcons have the league’s top air attack, and while that provides a different type of challenge, the Patriots seem ready. Having only allowed a 238 passing yards per game in the regular season, that will not be enough to get the job done for Atlanta.
Prediction #3: Malcolm Butler to Cover Julio Jones
Earlier in the week, Eric Rowe seemed to reveal that Logan Ryan will likely be asked to cover Mohamed Sanu in the slot. I think this is a bit of a smokescreen.
“It’s rare to see a big guy like that in the slot.” Eric Rowe on Sanu. “Luckily for us, Logan Ryan is not really small.” @csnne
— Michael Giardi (@MikeGiardi) January 26, 2017
That would leave Butler & Rowe to cover Julio Jones and Taylor Gabriel. While Eric Rowe has done a great job on big receivers this year (namely AJ Green early), he’s struggled when covering deep-threats. That is precisely why the Steelers sent their WR’s on deep routes vs. Rowe in the AFC Championship Game. Seeing as Jones and Gabriel are the team’s fastest receivers and deep-threats, I wouldn’t bet on the Patriots exposing Rowe to deep coverage.
In keeping with the Patriots theme to remove one player/threat per game, I believe the Patriots will prioritize shutting down Julio Jones. Malcolm Butler silenced Antonio Brown for much of the AFC Championship Game and I believe it’s likely that the Patriots will ask Butler to shadow Jones in an elite vs. elite matchup. Butler will try to keep Jones in front of him, but will also have safety help over top, if needed.
This leaves Logan Ryan and Eric Rowe to cover Taylor Gabriel and Mohamed Sanu. Sanu seems like the perfect matchup for Eric Rowe. Tall, but without blazing speed, Rowe could be quite effective in locking up Sanu. Last Sunday, Logan Ryan was assigned to Eli Rogers for most of the game and he did his job. Rogers, small and fast, plays a similar style as Gabriel so I expect Logan Ryan to be ready. With the Patriots playing a lot of zone coverage, Ryan will also have plenty of help containing his primary man.
That said, the Patriots are known for mixing up coverage schemes, so expect to see a bit of rotation mixed in with the major assignments throughout Super Bowl LI.
Prediction #4: Brady Will Spread the Wealth
Aside from Rob Gronkowski, the Patriots offense is remarkably healthy heading into Super Bowl LI. In addition to the the usual headliners (Edelman, Hogan, Lewis, Blount, & Bennett), the team got Malcolm Mitchell and Danny Amendola back last week. Moving forward, the Patriots seemingly have flexibility to expose any Falcons coverage scenario.
The Falcons have had trouble covering the deep ball this season. Remember the flea-flicker from Lewis-Brady-Hogan last week? That is exactly the strategy the Patriots used to expose the Steelers last week, and we could be seeing more of it to come.
Expect the Patriots to send Chris Hogan and Malcolm Mitchell deep, which will open up Julian Edelman and Danny Amendola across the middle. By stretching the field deep, the Patriots also open up the sidelines for screens to James White and Dion Lewis.
The key for the Patriots offensive line will be stopping Vic Beasely Jr., the NFL’s sack leader. If the Beasley and his d-line can put pressure on Brady early & often, they’ll limit the time for plays to develop. This can be “double-trouble” for the Patriots; it will likely take away the deep-threat AND force Brady to throw short and early, taking pressure off of the Falcons secondary. Knocking down #12 will undoubtedly be the key to Dan Quinn’s Super Bowl LI defensive gameplan. To help with protection, expect Martellus Bennett to be active in blocking schemes for much of the game.
Oh, and then there’s LeGarrette Blount. Atlanta finished 26th in rushing yards per attempt (4.5 YPA), so expect Blount to find plenty of room on non-passing downs.
Prediction #5: Patriots: Super Bowl LI Champions
Needed: One for the Thumb.
Tom Brady will undoubtedly lead the Patriots to hoist their 2nd Lombardi Trophy in 3 seasons. It will be his 5th Super Bowl ring in 7 attempts and complete his “revenge-tour” against the league. He will become only the second PLAYER in NFL history to win 5 rings (Charles Haley), but the only player to do so with one franchise.
Look for Tom Brady to accept the Super Bowl MVP trophy from Roger Goodell with nothing but professionalism and class.
It’s the moment Patriots fans are all waiting for.
PATRIOTS 38 – Falcons 24
High scoring prediction… I’d give it 27 – 20, Pats.