Welcome back! Seems like I only get to blog once a year now, but hey at least that’s something. Let’s get right into it with a recap of last year’s blog! Got two right again (Marcus Jones & Jack Jones), which is the 5th year in a row of at least two draft picks right for the Patriots. I’m probably jinxing myself here, but read more if you’d like to see who this year’s two might be.
This year, we’ll do 3 mocks again, but with a slightly different twist:
- What would I do
- What do I think the Patriots will do
- The Compromise
But first, a word (or a couple hundred) about last season…
2022 Season Recap
2022 bordered on gross negligence on the part of Bill, and even Bob Kraft for allowing it to go down in the first place. The Patriots reportedly didn’t even try to keep Josh McDaniels, instead opting to let him go along with many key assistants. We decided to hand the offense over to dumb and dumber, two people universally hated by their former players and fans in their brief stints as head coaches and widely accused of being completely inept. That sounds harsh, but it proved true when our entire offense consisted of halfback draws, WR bubble screens, and a few RB screens. It was like watching a 3rd grader calling rookie-mode plays on Madden.
Let’s also not forget we just let Nelson Agholor walk after he (predictably) did nothing on his $15.5M/yr deal with us and we dealt Jonnu Smith, who signed a $16.5M/yr deal with us and also did nothing, for a 7th round pick. Bill had the gall to blame Kraft for not spending money, but he wasted ~$32M on two crap bags. For reference, here’s a look at the highest paid WRs in 2022. I bet you’d like to have any one of these guys instead, and ONLY ONE OF THEM makes more than Agholor + Smith. No Bill, the issue isn’t a cheap owner or a “weak armed” QB. It’s a shitty GM.
It’s no wonder Mac sucked. Yes, I said it, he had a bad year, but who could blame him? Here we had a guy who was coming off one of the best seasons (statistically) a rookie QB has ever had after having set records at Alabama. He had some of the same knocks as Brady: “He’s really smart but can’t throw a deep ball.” (I don’t know about you, but I beg to differ … the tape says otherwise). All we needed to do was acquire another receiving threat, shore up the O-Line, and make sure we didn’t miss McDaniels all that much.
None of that happened. In fact, the receivers got noticeably worse. The O-Line was atrocious. It all had to do with fundamentally poor coaching. I’ll give Bill some credit for acquiring some speed in the 2022 draft class. Marcus Jones and Jack Jones were great. Cole Strange was good, but way overdrafted, and the rest are still question marks. Tyquan’s got blazing speed and looks enticing but has butter hands and was hurt all year. Can’t completely blame him though as exactly 0% of the route trees designed by Matty Pathetic and Joe Sludge were effective. Pierre Strong is fast too, so there’s that. Aside from Bill’s asinine choices to split-lead the offense, he made things worse by feeding into a QB controversy with a far inferior Zappe, who for some unknown reason, was given more play-action pass playcalls and 50/50 ball receiver routes to work with. The one time they gave Mac a similar offensive playcalling scheme, he torched Minnesota going 29* of 40* for 388* and 3* TDs and 0 INT. Still, all of that doesn’t make up for the fact that Mac whined like a petulant child for the whole season. He’s still only 24 years old though.
* This was a fucking touchdown.
Now, going into this offseason, we’ve got one major plus: Bill O’Brien, who is apparently “completely reworking” the Patriots offense. In New England, we usually make fun of teams for wrecking QBs, joking when a first round QB has had 3* offensive coordinators in 3 seasons. Welp, that’s us now. Bill has continued to make questionable moves though. We decided to sign Juju Smith-Schuster to a nearly identical deal to Jakobi Meyers, who went back to McDaniels. Why on earth would you want an older WR who’s more often injured, for the same money, as your most dependable WR? Probably because Jakobi wanted the hell out, or is it because Bill is a baby and was pissed that Meyers stood up for Mac after Bill’s mishandling of the Bears game benching? Either way it’s probably a lateral move in the end as neither is a WR-1, but it’s certainly not an upgrade. I do like the Gesicki signing, and we’ve added a few pieces to the OL, but nobody that completely solves the need at both Tackle positions. The above additions should be enough for Mac to return back to his rookie year performance at a minimum. If he doesn’t, I fear we’ve ruined him in New England. Even if he does, I have a hard time believing he’ll want to come back after his rookie deal ends, given his mistreatment, unless we turn it around in an amazing way. It’s sad, but we’re (at least close to) becoming the franchise that stars cant wait to leave.
* Even though there were 4 humans (McDaniels, Patricia, Judge, O’Brien), the middle two only deserve a half a human point each.
This Year’s Blog Format
In this year’s blog, I’ll again use the PFF mock draft simulator to generate 3 different scenarios:
Patriots Draft Needs
I’ll keep this section simple. We have two glaring needs (WR and OT) and a few spaces where we could certainly improve. Here are my brief thoughts on each position and where I think it makes sense to prioritize.
Wide Receiver
The number one need. It’s not even close. We cannot keep trotting out experiments and hoping to be successful. We don’t have Tom Brady anymore and we need to act like every other team in the league and go prioritize getting a true weapon for Mac. At Alabama, Mac set records, but he had Jaylen Waddle, Devonta Smith, Jerry Jeudy, and Jameson Williams (briefly). All were first round picks and all are either elite already, or have shown flashes. It’s time to prioritize this.
“But Bill can’t draft wide receivers… look at N’Keal Harry!!”
No. Bill keeps trying to draft guys that nobody thinks have elite capability. He takes the guy from the small school, or the guy who has “intangibles” but never the guy who’s the alpha. Maybe it’s related to his issue with Mac — he can’t handle anyone talking back to him. If that’s the case, it’s a shame. N’Keal was universally thought of as a round 3 target. It’s where I had him in 2019. A 3rd round WR not hitting isn’t going to kill you, but taking a 3rd round target in round 1 and missing is. Everyone had AJ Brown, Deebo Samuel, DK Metcalf, Terry McLaurin, and Diontae Johnson above N’Keal. Taking a consensus top 5 WR is rarely a risk anymore. The league has changed.
In 2022, we took Tyquan Thornton in Rd. 2. He had a round 4 grade. Now, given his blazing speed, that’s not the worst reach, but again everyone had George Pickens, Alec Pierce, and Skyy Moore above him. The 3 of them all went off the board in the next 4 picks. I’m not saying it was a bad pick, but it is certainly a risk. Pickens and Pierce had far better years and Moore & Thornton’s stats were nearly identical.
If I’m the Patriots this year, I’m taking one of Quentin Johnston, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Zay Flowers, or Jordan Addison, in that order. This year’s class isn’t anywhere near as stacked as previous years, but the aforementioned guys are universally viewed as the top talent. Yes, there possible other good finds like Josh Downs, Michael Wilson, Tank Dell, Rashee Rice, Cedrick Tillman, among others later, but if you want to revolutionize your offense, you need to go get a guy with true #1 potential.
Offensive Tackle
Trent Brown is often hurt, getting worse, and getting older. He can’t be our only available option at the Left Tackle position, the most important part of the OL. Sure we signed Calvin Anderson, but he’s more likely a depth piece. On the other side at RT, we had a rotating door of fill-ins: Cajuste, McDermott, etc. None of them was good enough and Mac faced constant pressure. We did sign Riley Reiff, who should likely be the starter, but at 34 years old, he’s not what he used to be.
We have made some upgrades to our line (and not to our receivers), which is why this is need 1b and not 1a.
Cornerback
This is one of those positions that I just trust that we’ll figure it out with the guys we have. It’s worked in the past, too. Malcolm Butler, JC Jackson, and Jonathan Jones were all undrafted free agent signings. There have been others, too. Now, when the Patriots have true alpha corners like Stephon Gilmore, or when we had the Revis/Browner pair, the position looks a lot better. I’d like to see them draft someone who can grow into a lockdown corner, especially given the depth at receiver in-division. The Jones Trio (Jonathan, Jack, & Marcus) is good enough to “bend but not break” but having a true lockdown corner would significantly improve the depth here.
EDGE
Judon is now in his 30s and his contract is up in 2 years. Uche is done after this season. While those two are core starters, you can never have enough pass rushing off the edge. I’d like to see us grab another pass rusher and/or a coverage backer who could be a nice compliment here. It’d do a lot to shore up the future, too.
Safety
Devin McCourty’s retirement is really going to hurt. We’re moving Jalen Mills to Safety, and Kyle Dugger has turned into a star, but we are going to really miss the high IQ our former captain provided. This is a secondary need as I think our starting two are good enough to do the job, but I’d really expect to see them prioritize this for the future.
Alright! Let’s get to it!
Patriots Draft Order & Strategy
The Patriots are set up nicely this year with a total of 11 picks. This should give them the flexibility to move around the draft, if needed.
- Round 1, Pick 14
- Round 2, Pick 46
- Round 3, Pick 76 (From CAR)
- Round 4, Pick 107 (from LA Rams)
- Round 4, Pick 117
- Round 4, Pick 135*
- Round 6, Pick 184 (From LV)
- Round 6, Pick 187 (From CAR)
- Round 6, Pick 192
- Round 6, Pick 210*
- Round 7, Pick 245 (From BUF via ATL)
*Compensatory pick
Overall, I believe our first two picks should be a WR followed by OT (preferably a Left Tackle). There’s a lot of depth at the tackle position this year, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Patriots wait and prioritize other skill positions, like CB first.
Let’s get to it!
Draft #1: What I Would Do
In this draft, we see the Patriots as uber-aggressive. They are unafraid to trade UP and go get the pieces that they need. Let’s go pick by pick.
R1: Pick 14 – Quentin Johnston, WR – TCU
Leading up to this pick, we see the top 3 OT go off the board (Paris Johnson, Broderick Jones, and Peter Skoronski). If somehow Paris Johnson fell, I might do a double take on the pick here, but I doubt he will and I have much more confidence in the depth of the Tackle position in this year’s draft, so I’d still go Quentin Johnston.
The most tantalizing receiver in this draft, Quentin Johnston is built like a tank and he’s got elite breakaway speed. His highlight tape below is all you need to see if you’re a Patriots fan. Johnston wowed at the combine, and ran a 4.50 40-time at his Pro-Day. CeeDee Lamb ran a 4.51 and DeAndre Hopkins ran a 4.57 for what its worth. The former Horned Frog seemed ecstatic about the prospect of joining the Patriots, too, after meeting with the coaching staff at his pro-day.
The knock on Johnston is that he’s a “body catcher” and that he’s struggled with drops from time to time. However, his athleticism, measurables, and production have countered that. He’s got elite “go up and get it” stuff and is exactly the kind of receiver Mac needs.
This year’s class of receivers is very deep as far as slot/up the middle guys but there’s really only one potential stud outside guy and it’s Johnston. Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who battled injuries last year, has shown outside/deep threat abilities, but still figures to be an over the middle slot guy. Zay Flowers, who I also love, draws comparisons to Tyler Lockett – another slot guy – for his shiftiness. Jordan Addison figures to line up in the slot, too.
We need a true outside receiver who we can pair with Davante Parker. Go. Get. Him.
R2: Pick 36 – Emmanuel Forbes, CB – Miss St.
The Patriots get aggressive here and trade up to go get their future lock-down corner. To get it done, the Patriots trade 3rd round pick #73 + a 2nd Round pick next year (2024) to the Rams for #36 and Round 5, #177.
Forbes is an absolute ball hawk. He now has the most pick-6’s in FBS and SEC history and has visited with the Patriots twice now; once at the combine and again for a private top 30 visit. In his 35 games at Mississippi State, he broke up 20 passes and picked off 14 balls, 6 of which resulted in touchdowns. At the combine, Forbes showed off his blazing speed, running a 4.35 40-yard dash.
So why is he there in Round 2? He might not be. But if he is, it’s because he measured at 6’1″ and 166 lbs. He’s SKINNY. There’s some worries that he’s not going to be as physical as you need to be against the elite WRs and some scouts worry about his tendency to bite on double moves. Given Belichick’s emphasis on turnovers and his ability to coach up the position, I see Forbes as a perfect fit for us, but we’d need to jump up to get him.
R2: Pick 39 – Dawand Jones, RT – Ohio State
Again, if you want to get the stars, you’re going to have to jump up and pay for it. Here, the Patriots trade pick #46 and the newly acquired pick #177 (from the Rams) to the Panthers for Pick #39. Basically giving them a 5th round pick in order to move up 8 spots. Here’s why:
Dawand Jones is essentially a Trent Brown clone. He’s 6’8” and measured at 374 lbs. Can you imagine having these two behemoths as your bookends at Tackle? Jones is surprisingly athletic for his size. He’s very patient in pass blocking schemes and his length and strength make up for his range. Paris Johnson, Jr. (LT – OSU), Broderick Jones (LT – Georgia), Peter Skoronski (LT – Northwestern), or Darnell Wright (RT – Tennessee) would all be amazing additions but all are expected to go at or around #14. Wright might slip to the end of the first. Given our need at WR, I think there’s better value later in the draft at both tackle positions and waiting is going to prove fruitful. To get him, the Patriots still have to trade up, but at least they have the assets to do so.
R4: Pick 107 – Jammie Robinson, S – Florida State
It’s a long wait from pick #39 to pick #107, but here the Patriots steal who some have as the best overall safety in the draft. Jammie is consistent and flexible. As a four year starter at Florida State, he played all over the place: 1,348 from the slot, 759 back deep, and 633 snaps in the box. That’s the kind of versatility Belichick loves. Better yet, he registered ever improving tackle numbers throughout his career, ending at a great 7.4% missed tackle rate. That kind of consistency is surely something that has the Patriots salivating, especially given McCourty’s departure. Robinson has also been invited to Foxborough for a private top 30 visit.
R4: Pick 117 – Luke Schoonmaker, TE – Michigan
Jonnu didn’t work. Henry has been good but he only has a year left. Gesicki’s a nice addition but only on a 1-year deal, too. My hunch is that the Patriots are going to look to the draft again. While there are definitely better options, many of them are going to be off the board by this time in the draft.
Schoonmaker was the TE on the West team at the East-West Shrine bowl. The Patriots coaching staff was responsible for working with and coaching the West roster, so they had a bit of extra time working with Schoonmaker. The game was a field goal fest, with a 12-3 final score (more on that to come below), and while Schoonmaker didn’t receive a target, the extra opportunity to work with the Patriots coaching staff and his blocking ability isn’t something we should overlook.
R4: Pick 135 – Viliami Fehoko, EDGE – San Jose State
Another Shrine Bowl guy, Fehoko is the perfect kind of pick for the Patriots. He’s right up their alley and exactly what this team needs. Fehoko was impossible to block. According to PFF.com, he registered a 90.9 overall grade after posting 66 pressures. Those numbers are what would get you drafted #1 overall if you were at Alabama. Of course, it’s happening against easier competition, but the numbers are still eye-popping.
Better yet! He’s a former Rugby guy!! And we all know that’s one of the top things Bill values.
“Rugby and football are kind of mirrored in their playing styles, it’s kind of like football with no pads almost. It takes a lot to play rugby, to be able to throw your shoulder and tackle guys without pads and stuff. It takes a little while to get used to, but after playing football for so long it was already ingrained in me to go make those plays. Rugby helped me with, I wouldn’t say that fear factor, but kind of just throwing myself into situations where most people wouldn’t, I feel like that transitioned onto the football field for me in terms of just throwing my body around and making plays.”
Source: https://www.ninersnation.com/2023/4/14/23682618/viliami-fehoko-jr-nfl-draft-49ers-interview
What stood out to me from the above interview is his will:
“I’d say my physicality and my aggressiveness. Personally I feel like my hunger is unmatched when it comes to the game of football.”
That said, during his private top 30 visit to the Patriots, Belichick undoubtedly spent the entire time talking about rugby. A guy like him could absolutely thrive in this environment and I think he’s the kind of “small school” guy that may go unnoticed, to our benefit.
R5: Pick 146 – Dorian Williams, LB – Tulane
Here, we were targeting Zach Harrison (EDGE – Ohio State) so we traded up to get him. The Patriots receive #141 from the Raiders for #187 and #192, both 6th round picks. When Harrison was drafted by Bears, the Patriots traded down a few slots to #146, acquiring that and two 7th round selections (#227 and #257) from the Saints in return for #141.
Dorian Williams is another guy who could fit right into our scheme. He’s rated one of the best coverage linebackers in college football and he fits well into zone defensive schemes, which the Patriots are all about. Williams also has a 6’8″ wingspan that allows him to get around defenders when rushing the QB, but also makes for many tipped balls and pass breakups. With an 8.3% missed tackle rate, he was at the high end of his class last year. Williams is also a speed demon as he ran a sub 4.5 40, a trait the Patriots desperately need. The reason he’ll fall is his size. At 6’1″ and 228, he’s more of a slot safety size. Though, given his speed and arm length, he’s a super intriguing gamble here. There are plenty of former LBs who covert into S at the next level and he’s got the pieces to do that.
Another small school guy, Williams in the 5th round is excellent value.
R6: Pick 178 – Jose Ramirez, EDGE – Eastern Michigan
Another small school, another big talent, another Shrine Bowl player. Seriously, don’t underestimate the Patriots’ chance to work directly with a player for a whole week leading up to a game.
From PFF.com: “Ramirez flat-out knows how to rush the passer. He earned a 90.5 pass-rushing grade in 2022 and a 91.6 mark in 2021. He’s just undersized and not terribly explosive.” From 2020 to 2021 and then again in 2022 Ramirez just continued to get better. In ’22, Ramirez earned MAC Defensive Player of the Year after he racked up 66 tackles, including 19.5 for loss, and 12 sacks. He also helped in the turnover department forcing two fumbles and recovering another.
Ramirez seems to have the brains to make up for his frame. While 6’2″ and 242 is undersized, his grit is something that’d be appreciated in the New England System
In order to get him, the Patriots have to make yet another trade, this time moving up 6 slots from #184. The full package is #178, #217, and #249 to Kansas City for #184 and #210.
R6: Pick 217 – Starling Thomas V, CB – UAB
STOP WITH THE SMALL SCHOOL GUYS, BILL. Just kidding, but seriously…. another guy from a small school who seems to have traits we desperately need. Thomas has the speed we need at CB. He’s regarded as one of the fastest cornerbacks in the draft class, though you have to rely purely on his tape as he wasn’t invited to the combine. With Thomas, it’s more than speed though as he only allowed 22 of 58 targets to be caught this year. That was tied for 12th in the nation in lowest completion percentage.
Thomas is only 5’9″ and 194, but as a CB, if you’ve got speed to make up for it, it doesn’t matter.
He’s definitely worth a gamble, but he’s also one of those guys that’s insanely hard to project where he’ll go. He could go as high as the 4th, and as low as undrafted.
R7: Pick 227 – Ronnie Bell, WR – Michigan
And we’re done with the small school guys. To me, Bell is probably the #1 lock to be drafted by the Pats. I’d put Fehoko above him but I think he’s going to draw significant interest from a lot of teams, so I think Bell is safer. The Patriots have worked with Bell A LOT. The Patriots were at his Pro-Day at Michigan, gave him a private workout, and then invited him to Foxborough on a top-30 visit. He’s a late round type of talent the Pats always look for at receiver. In back-to-back seasons, Bell was voted by his Wolverine teammates a team captain. He’s also been the leading receiver twice in his career in Ann Arbor.
Bell is a great route runner with high football IQ and he’s got the speed to stretch the field after the catch. However, he hasn’t been able to consistently separate at the line of scrimmage and he’s not super reliable making contested catches. Otherwise, he’d be drafted much much higher. Ronnie Bell reminds me a lot of David Givens, who had some of the same knocks coming out of Notre Dame. Rumor has it that Givens went on to catch 1000 balls every day in the weeks leading up to training camp, and he turned into one of our best receivers. Bell has that upside and a pick in round 7 is exactly where it would be appropriate to take that risk.
R7: Pick 249 – Jake Moody, K – Michigan
Nick Folk has been the MVP of the last 3 seasons in New England. That’s pretty embarrassing, but aside from Judon, it’s probably true, too. Folk is getting older and Bill loves drafting kickers, so taking a stab at Moody here is worth it.
Remember the score of the Shrine Bowl? 12-3. Moody hit two 35-yard field goals and another two 51-yard field goals to win the game for the West. Moody’s stats at Michigan are downright impressive. He was the 2021 Lou Groza Award winner (best college kicker in the country) and finished his Michigan career making 82.1% of his field goals (69 of 84). Even more automatic, he hit a perfect 148 of 148 extra points. That’s worth a pick, even though only 17 kickers have been drafted in the last 10 drafts.
R7: Pick 257 – Michael Turk, P – Oklahoma
The last and final pick in this mock, and also the last Shrine Bowl player to be taken by the Patriots. The Patriots struggled turning over the field last year without Jake Bailey. Michael Palardy just didn’t get it done with an average punt of just 42.4 yards and a 36.4 net. We signed Corliss Waitman over the offseason but his stats are only marginally better, ranking 20th in the league last year with 46.6 avg and a 41.5 net. Waitman also spent the year in Denver, where we talk about Home Run balls leaving Coors Field easier in the thin air… something tells me that could affect punting, too.
Turk has played 5 years of college football, starting at Lafayette, transferring to Arizona State, and then finishing at Oklahoma. In 2021, Turk AVERAGED a 51.2 yard punt with a long of 85 yards! While he regressed to 46.8 in 2022, he still was very consistent, tied for 14th in the nation in college. He also perennially ranked high in the top 15 for “inside 20” punts in the nation.
Turk is a good late round gamble given his upside and the need.
Recap
Overall, the Patriots walk away with the top receiver in the draft, a ball hawking corner, a future starting RT, and a replacement for McCourty. In the later rounds, we gamble on upside at TE, EDGE, and increase the defensive speed at LB and CB. Another lottery at WR is worth it and then we revamp our special teams with two of the top kickers/punters.
Draft #2: What I Think The Patriots Will Do
In this draft, we see the Patriots trade back and go get the guys they want, even if it’s above where most people have them. Truly a Patriots-esque draft. Let’s go pick by pick.
R1: Pick 19 – Zay Flowers, WR – Boston College
In true Patriots fashion, they trade back out of the 14 spot. It’s because they are seemingly in love with Zay Flowers, who profiles as a late first round pick, who some even have in early round 2. He’s unlikely to go top 20, so the Patriots take advantage here and deal #14 and #184 to Tampa Bay for #19, #50 and #151. A decent haul without sacrificing who you are trying to target. It should be noted that at this point in the draft, the top OTs are again off the board and Quentin Johnston is available. He ends up going at #18 to the Lions right before we make this pick.
Flowers has elite quick-twitch skills. He easily loses defenders and his athleticism is simply off the charts. As a separator, there isn’t anyone better in this draft class. DBs are unable to stick with Flowers for very long, so he would do wonders in New England’s short yardage passing scheme. If Tyquan Thornton can pan out, it would be scary to think of these two as a pair in an offense. So. Much. Speed.
However, Flowers is only 5’9″ and weighs 182. That’s not a problem if you’re Tyreek Hill, but even Hill has an inch and 10 lbs on Flowers. Flowers disappointed some at the combine, running a 4.42, but again that’s elite. Tyquan ran a 4.28 (Tyreek a 4.29) but seriously, we’re talking 14 tenths of a second. They are FAST.
Flowers’s speed comes with some flaws though. At BC, he dropped a whopping 24 balls (10.3% drop rate) and given his frame, he doesn’t exactly have a large catch radius. Thus, he profiles more as a slot receiver than anything else. We just signed Juju as our slot guy, so there’s less of a need there…. yet another reason why I’m pro Quentin Johnston with pick #1. On the plus side, his 58.3% contested catch rate was eyepopping. It means that he’s got fight in him. Flowers also needs to learn how to be more creative with his route running. Sometimes he looks rigid and does exactly what the play calls for (something that Bill undoubtedly adores), but fails to shake a guy with an extra move if it’s not called for.
The Patriots seem all in here. They went to his pro-day and invited him to a top 30 visit where he apparently spent the day learning the reworked Bill O’Brien offense. Unless this is fodder the Patriots are intentionally putting out there to get teams off the scent of who they really want, it seems like they’re in on Zay in a big way.
In addition to that, Matt Groh, the Patriot’s Director of Player Personnel had this to say:
“Depending on the offense, you’ve got to be able to move these guys around, especially a player like Zay who can do a lot of things. It’s easy to pigeonhole these guys. Well, ok, he’s a big guy, but there’s big guys that have been slot receivers. You look at a guy like Brandon Marshall, he made a living inside and did a really good job. I think there’s a certain type that certainly a lot of fans have seen around here with the smaller guys getting in and out of their breaks being inside. But, I think it was maybe 4.42 Zay ran at the Combine, so you’re talking about a pretty fast guy that can also stretch the field vertically on the outside. I don’t think Zay would want to be typecast as an inside or outside guy, so I’ll just say he’s a really good wide receiver.”
Source: https://bostoncollege.rivals.com/news/patriots-director-of-player-personnel-talks-zay-flowers
Flowers has tantalizing upside as a playmaker. If he can untap that, he may become the best WR in the draft, but he doesn’t solve our need for a big outside target. If we end up with Flowers in round 1, I’ll certainly be happy as I do think he has the kind of WR-1 upside we need.
R2: Pick 46 – Julius Brents, CB – Kansas State
Brents is another freak athlete, scoring in the 99th percentile on Wingspan and Broad Jump, the 98th percentile in Arm Length, and the 96th percentile in Height and Vertical Jump. He measured in at 6’3″ and 198 lbs – the exact kind of athlete the Patriots are looking for at the CB position. While he disappointed some with his sub-par 4.53 40 time, his actual game speed looks much faster.
Brents only allowed a 46.2% catch rate at Kansas State in 2022, earning him First-Team All-Big-12 honors. He’s a rare type of cornerback that should be able to blanket some of the top receiving threats, opening up the rest of the defensive backs to rotate around. The Patriots are sorely lacking a lockdown cornerback and Brents could be what they’re looking for.
The Patriots met with Brents at the combine.
R2: Pick 61 – Blake Freeland, LT – BYU
TRADE! The Patriots trade back from pick 50 as they’re targeting Freeland who should be available later. The deal with the Bears sees the Patriots sending #50, #107, and #192 in return for #61, #64, and #218.
At #61, Freeland is one of my favorite mid round LTs. He’s a supreme athlete whose season grade continued to improve each year at BYU. Freeland has a lot of game experience. At 2,690 snaps he ranks second for most snaps in this year’s Tackle draft class. Freeland started his first two seasons at Right Tackle and then moved to the blindside position in 2022. He ranked second in the nation at a 90.7 pass-blocking grade and third in the nation (87.9) in run blocking.
Freeland reminds me a lot of Nate Solder. At 6’8″ and 302, he’s an interesting build, similar to Solder’s 6’9″ and 316. He’s tall and moves well, but at only 302, he’s definitely got room to add to his frame. The worry here is that he’d get bulled over by stronger edge rushers. If he had another 20-30lbs on his frame, he’d likely be a projected first rounder. Currently, Freeland is projected as a late 2nd / early 3rd round grade, but I could see the Patriots jumping up to bolster the line sooner than later.
R3: Pick 64 – Jordan Battle, S – Alabama
Battle isn’t going to wow anyone from an athleticism standpoint. He’s the definition of “high floor, low ceiling” but he’d be the kind of guy who could plug and play immediately. As a four year starter at Alabama, Battle’s football IQ is certainly high. He’s a physical player who did earn 80+ coverage grades each season. There are definitely more enticing Safeties in this draft, but there aren’t a lot that would be exactly as advertised.
R3: Pick 79 – Tyler Steen, OT – Alabama
The Patriots continue their movement, again trading back a few slots, this time dealing with the Colts. We move back to #79 from #76 while shipping #135 and #218 and returning #106 and #221.
The Nick Saban connection strikes again. Steen’s had a very interesting background. He began his career at Vanderbilt, starting on the defensive line. Then, he switched to RT for 2019 and again to LT in 2020 and 2021. Steen transferred to Alabama in 2022 and started every game as the team’s Left Tackle. Steen is seen as a flex player who might end up bumping inside to the guard position based on his athleticism, which isn’t the best. That said, he earned a good 74.4 pass blocking grade in 2022.
Steen has been invited to Foxborough for a private top 30 workout and might be a great get given his flexibility. We know Belichick values guys who can move around the line, and Steen definitely fits that mold.
R3: Pick 92- Jammie Robinson, S – Florida State
TRADE AGAIN! This draft’s all about moving around to get the guys you want. Here, the Patriots move up from the recently acquired pick #106 via the Colts. The Patriots deal #106, #117, and #210 and get #92 and #131 back.
Jammie Robinson is arguably the most complete safety in the draft. I covered him in the “what I would do” draft recap here.
R4: Pick 105 – Zack Kuntz, TE – Old Dominion University
Another TRADE! Perhaps we should’ve kept #106? Here the Pats move up to grab Kuntz, trading #131, #187, and a 2024 4th Round pick in order to get the athletic TE (and another 5th rounder at #168).
Kuntz is a combine star and a towering presence at 6’7″ and 255. He’s definitely a project but he’s not always been an unknown. Coming out of high school, Kuntz committed to Penn State as a 5 star recruit. At the combine, Kuntz scored #1 in “athleticism” amongst all tight ends (94). He ran a 4.55 40 and had a 40″ vertical jump. That mixed with his 6’7″ frame is really impressive. He’d be a surefire redzone threat and someone who could easily find holes in soft coverage or beat someone to the ball in the air. It’s rare to find a player of his size with his athleticism, so it’s going to be worth a gamble for some team.
As for production, you have to look back to 2021 as his 2022 season was cut short due to injury. In ’21, Kuntz was elite, catching 73 passes for 692 yards and 5 touchdowns. Kuntz is an ok blocker. He’ll need to improve his blocking all around if he’s going to increase his snap count at the next level, but his upside as a pass catching TE is worth the gamble.
R5: Pick 153 – Viliami Fehoko, EDGE – San Jose State
Another TRADE! Perhaps we should’ve kept #106? Here the Pats move up to grab Kuntz, trading #131, #187, and a 2024 4th Round pick in order to get the athletic TE (and another 5th rounder at #168).
We covered Fehoko extensively above. Read that here.
R6: Pick 178 – Dorian Thompson-Robinson, QB – UCLA
Patriots trade back 10 picks and acquire another 6th. The deal with the Chiefs sees New England trading #168 to Kansas City for #178 and #217.
Uh oh. QB Controversy? Probably not. But we do know Bill likes to rock the boat. We know (or think we know) he’s not sold on Mac Jones, and we all saw Zappe for what he was, a mid-tier backup. Dorian Thompson-Robinson is a slightly undersized (6’2″ and 203) mobile QB. The Patriots had a chance to work with DTR at the Shrine Bowl, too.
Coming out of high school, DTR was rated the #2 dual-threat QB. He started 8 games as a true freshman at UCLA and many had him pegged as the next Lamar Jackson and a sure-fire first round pick. Unfortunately, he never was able to build on that promise and his skills remained untapped.
DTR is an explosive but volatile athlete. He’s got all the traits to be an elite creator with his feet but his consistent decision making and field vision are both significantly below average. He seems to panic and throw the ball away or into dangerous places when he’s under pressure and his arm strength isn’t elite. He’ll need to fix that at the next level, but some team will take him on as a project given his immense playmaking ability with his feet.
R6: Pick 217 – Ronnie Bell, WR – Michigan
Read more about Ronnie Bell in the above draft analysis.
R7: Pick 221 – Michael Turk, P – Oklahoma
Read more about Michael Turk in the above draft analysis.
Recap
As you’ll see below, a lot of these draft pics receive “C” or lower grades based on their PFF ranking on the Big Board. The overall draft is a B-, but it’s typical Patriots to go get the guys they like regardless of their rank and other potential on the board. In this draft, the Patriots stay true to drafting guys they believe can plug in and play right now, but they still get upside potential at key positions.
Although I think New England could get much more aggressive and take bigger risks by moving up, like the previous mock, if this were to happen, I would be very excited for the incoming class.
Draft #3: The Compromise
In this draft, we compromise between targeting the guys I like and what I think the Patriots are likely going to do in reality. In this draft, we’re aiming to pick guys that we know the Patriots like, but making sure that we stay aggressive to get guys we want at the positions we think are fair.
R1: Pick 25 – Zay Flowers, WR – Boston College
While it’d be frustrating on draft day to see two trades back, it’s the right move if you’re not going to take Quentin Johnston or one of the top tackles. Like I said above, every receiver in this draft has question marks. Jaxon Smith-Njigba is probably the most ready-now and complete WR, but lacks the elite upside, Johnston is the best outside receiver, but has issues with drops and body catching, and then Zay is extremely shifty but his size is a concern.
Based on all of the above analysis, I’m pretty certain that the Patriots are in on Zay. If that’s the case, we should hope they trade back and rack up picks as they should still be able to take him 10ish picks later.
First, we trade #14, #76, and #192 to Pittsburgh for #17 and #32. Pittsburgh gets their edge rusher in Nolan Smith and New England acquires the first pick of the 2nd Round.
Next, New England trades back again. This time, shipping pick #17 and #107 to the Giants for #25, #57, and #89. This gives the Patriots more flexibility to take a shot at better targets in the 2nd and 3rd round while still giving themselves a chance at Flowers at #25, who they end up taking. For what it’s worth, in this mock, Jaxon Smith-Njigba goes off the board at #9 to Chicago, Quentin Johnston goes to Giants at #17 (I’d probably punch a wall knowing he got taken at the pick we just dealt), and then Flowers goes as the 3rd receiver off the board.
Another interesting tidbit is that Emmanuel Forbes went high at #22 to the Ravens. I have him in the early 2nd round here.
R2: Pick 32 – Anton Harrison, LT – Oklahoma
Harrison falls just out of the first round to us at #32 and that’s a godsend. If he wasn’t there, we’d have taken Dawand Jones at this slot, but we’re lucky to see the Sooner available.
Harrison is 6’5″ and 315. He’s started at LT ever since he was a true freshman and he’s gotten better ever since. Out of 447 pass blocking snaps, he only allowed NINE pressures. Those are elite numbers. Harrison isn’t moving inside – he’s definitely a tackle, but he’s got to work on his strength if he wants to excel at the next level. The power rushing he’s likely to face in the NFL is far more explosive than what he saw at Oklahoma and if he wants to hold up, he’ll need to get stronger. Harrison is coming out after his junior year at Oklahoma and some scouts think he could’ve benefited from another year of weightlifting. Who’s to say that can’t happen at the NFL level? If the Pats were to draft Harrison here, he’d have the ability to sit out for a bit while he bulks up and learns from Trent Brown. No doubt Harrison will become a great NFL tackle, but it might take some time.
R2: Pick 39 – Luke Musgrave, TE – Oregon State
TRADE! Because the Patriots were patient and decided to accumulate picks, they have the flexibility to move up again – which is why I call this draft a “compromise” of sorts. Historically, the Patriots take 3rd round grade guys like N’Keal Harry, Sony Michel, or Cole Strange in the 1st round and miss the opportunity to trade down and acquire more, while still getting the guy they want.
Here, the Patriots trade up, dealing #57 and #89 (recently acquired from NYG) and #184 for #39 and #145.
At #39, we select Luke Musgrave, who is a rare find at TE. I wrote about Kuntz and Schoonmaker above, but those guys are dart throws. Musgrave, the nephew of former QB Bill Musgrave, has elite potential. At the combine, the 6’6″ 250 pound TE disappointed at the combine, running a 4.61. That’s very fast, but given that he was clocked at over 20 MPH at the senior bowl, people expected him to run a 4.50. Game speed is different from what you show at the combine though, so you have to like his upside in real games.
Musgrave’s season at Oregon State got cut short after 2 games. In those 2, he racked up 11 catches for 169 yards and a TD. His frame and story is very similar to that of Rob Gronkowski, who battled injuries and “had the stuff” to be great but never fully put it together until he came to New England. I am absolutely not suggesting that Musgrave is the next “best tight end of all time” but he certainly has the upside to become a perennial starter. Grabbing him in the early second round gives us a legit threat that should take over when Henry and/or Gesicki are done after 2023.
R2: Pick 46 – Tyrique Stevenson, CB – Miami (FL)
Tyrique Stevenson started his career at Georgia before transferring to Miami and growing into a shut-down cornerback. Stevenson’s not going to get lost at the line of scrimmage. He’s a magnet on the outside. In 2022, Stevenson posted a 79.5 coverage grade and only allowed 17 receptions all year. Teams simply don’t throw at him. The tape shows Stevenson as calm, cool, and collected, maintaining his balance and using his patience and physicality to rattle those he covers.
However, Stevenson isn’t the world’s best athlete. While he ran a great 4.45 40-Yard Dash, he disappointed on the 3-Cone Drill at 7.09 and only reached a 38.5″ Vertical Jump. Nothing is bad here but it was enough for him to rank 21st of all CBs at the combine for athleticism. Fortunately for Stevenson, this shouldn’t matter much as he’ll use his smarts and physicality to make up for this at the next level.
He should fit in nicely and become the lockdown corner we need in due time.
R4: Pick 122 – Dorian Williams, LB – Tulane
TRADE! The Patriots again move back a few slots trading #117 and #187 to the Chiefs for #122 and #134.
Read more about Dorian Williams in the above draft analysis.
R4: Pick 134 – Ronnie Hickman, S – OSU
Hickman had a great year in 2022, posting an 84.8 grade for the Buckeyes. Ronnie played all over the field, lining up in the Slot, Box, and Deep, giving him the versatility the Patriots typically like from his position.
Hickman’s overall prospect grade comes in at 5.88, which equates to an “average backup or special teamer” in the NFL. A lot of that is based on his college production, where he didn’t develop ball hawking skills and didn’t wrack up many open field tackles either.
Hickman is good in coverage but hasn’t really developed the ball hawking skills you want from a safety. Because he played all over, there are questions as to whether he’d fit in as a single high safety or if he needs to be a part of nickel packages and unique safety configurations. That’s why I think he’s a good fit here as we’ve seen the Pats continually invest in guys like Chung and Mills who seem similar to Hickman in style. He’s a smart player who provides good depth for the Patriots here.
R4: Pick 135- Viliami Fehoko, EDGE – San Jose State
Read more about Viliami Fehoko in the above draft analysis.
R5: Pick 166- Jose Ramirez, EDGE – Eastern Michigan
Another 2 trades before this pick. First, we trade back 5 slots from #145 to #150 and pick up an additional 6th rounder (#215).
Next, we swap with the Chiefs to move back yet again. The deal sees #150, #210, and #215 going to KC for #166, #187, #217, and #249. In doing so, the Patriots acquire another 7th rounder and an earlier 6th rounder in exchange for moving back a bit.
Read more about Jose Ramirez in the above draft analysis.
R6: Pick 196 – Warren McClendon, RT – Georgia
Another move! It’s a lot, but again it’s not unprecedented. Here, we move back from #187 to #195, but pick up an additional 7th rounder (#252) and a 2024 7th from Tampa Bay, who moves up to grab Bryce Ford-Wheaton, an interesting WR from WVU who the Patriots have worked out, as well as coached at the Shrine Bowl.
With pick #196, the Patriots select the two-time national champion and a three-year starter at Right Tackle for Georgia. Warren McClendon is known as a hard worker and a team leader. McClendon is undersized at 6’4 and 306. If drafting an undersized OT from Georgia sounds familiar, it should (Isaiah Wynn). Hopefully we don’t take McClendon in the 1st Round this time. McClendon needs to get stronger if he wants to start at the tackle position at the next level.
It’s a good gamble at this slot and paired with Anton Harrison, the Patriots get two guys from major programs who can bolster the line, and who could potentially become the bookends for years to come.
R6: Pick 217 – Ronnie Bell, WR – Michigan
Read more about Ronnie Bell in the above draft analysis.
R7: Pick 249 – Jake Moody, K – Michigan
Read more about Jake Moody in the above draft analysis.
R7: Pick 252 – Michael Turk, P – Michigan
Read more about Michael Turk in the above draft analysis.
Recap
This draft received a B+. That’s solid and if we were to end up with this exact class, there would certainly be a lot of reason to be excited!
Closing Thoughts & Final Rankings
Between the three mocks, there are a total of 24 unique players drafted. There are 259 total picks this year, so we’ve covered approximately 9% of the picks in this draft. Let’s see how many actually happen! Below is how I would rank the players who are a part of the three mocks:
- Quentin Johnston, WR – TCU
- Zay Flowers, WR – Boston College
- Emmanuel Forbes, CB – Miss St.
- Anton Harrison, LT – Oklahoma
- Dawand Jones, RT – Ohio State
- Julius Brents, CB – Kansas State
- Tyrique Stevenson, CB – Miami (FL)
- Luke Musgrave, TE – Oregon State
- Blake Freeland, LT – BYU
- Jammie Robinson, S – Florida State
- Jordan Battle, S – Alabama
- Viliami Fehoko, EDGE – San Jose State
- Dorian Williams, LB – Tulane
- Tyler Steen, OT – Alabama
- Luke Schoonmaker, TE – Michigan
- Ronnie Hickman, S – OSU
- Warren McClendon, RT – Georgia
- Jose Ramirez, EDGE – Eastern Michigan
- Zack Kuntz, TE – Old Dominion University
- Starling Thomas V, CB – UAB
- Ronnie Bell, WR – Michigan
- Dorian Thompson-Robinson, QB – UCLA
- Jake Moody, K – Michigan
- Michael Turk, P – Oklahoma
Thanks for reading!
