2024 NFL Draft: Four Scenarios for the New England Patriots

Welcome! Last year’s blog started off with:

“Got two right again (Marcus Jones & Jack Jones), which is the 5th year in a row of at least two draft picks right for the Patriots. I’m probably jinxing myself here, but read more if you’d like to see who this year’s two might be.”

Well, I guess I got one thing right… I jinxed myself. No correct picks, but a solid overall draft for the Patriots. Christian Gonzalez falling to #17 was something of a miracle and we seem to have gotten a few other quality players in Keion White, Marte Mapu, Demario Douglas, Bryce Baringer, and Sidy Sow. Back to the drawing board for the blog, but a good haul for the Patriots!

For this year’s format, we’ll do 3 separate mocks plus a fun possibility. If you’d like to skip the recap and positional deep dives, you can use these links to direct you to each of the 4 drafts.

QB @ #3 No Matter What

Trade Down

The Dream Scenario

Bonus!

But first, about last season…

2023 Season Recap

It sucked.

2024 Patriots Free Agency Recap

Going into this year, Jerod Mayo promised we’d “burn some cash,” and given we had the most cap space (nearly $100M), it certainly seemed like we’d be able to land a few stars. And while that didn’t happen, I’m not completely displeased with our offseason.

Let’s start with re-signings. Overall, we kept the guys we needed to keep and gave them some solid contracts with some actual guaranteed cash. This marks a clear departure from the Bill Belichick way of squeezing everything out of the rookie deals and then moving on. Don’t believe me? Going into this year, the team hadn’t signed a player to a second contract (after his rookie deal) in over 10 years (Duron Harmon). I’m pleased we’ve kept some critical pieces, notably Onwenu, Bourne, Henry, and Uche. Keeping Dugger is great, too, but the handling of the contract is questionable at best. I have no clue why you’d place a transition tag on a guy for $13.5M, which allows the player to go out and find a better deal, and then end up paying him $14.5M even though there were no other offers from other teams. Seems like a waste of $1M, although I’ll give the team an A+ for keeping its key veterans.

In the open market, we struck out on a few key guys. Going into free agency, there were a lot of big names out there at WR: Tee Higgins, Mike Evans, Michael Pittman, and Calvin Ridley. Unfortunately, everyone but Ridley was either tagged or resigned with their former teams. Ridley signed a deal with the Titans that makes him the 9th highest paid player at the position. And while he certainly isn’t the 9th best player, I don’t believe it’s that much of an overpay given he’s likely to get buried by next year’s free agent class, which is absolutely loaded: Justin Jefferson, Ja’Marr Chase, Jaylen Waddle, DeVonta Smith, CeeDee Lamb, Brandon Aiyuk, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Stefon Diggs, Brandin Cooks, Tee Higgins, Nico Collins, Keenan Allen, Chris Godwin, Amari Cooper, DeAndre Hopkins, Hollywood Brown, etc. While the majority of these guys will likely get tagged or re-signed, it’s clearly a deeper class than this year. So, I’m encouraged to hear that we were the 2nd highest offer to Ridley and that we would’ve made up the difference in cost to get him up here (Tennessee is a no income tax state). The sad reality is that money isn’t the only thing players care about. Tennessee has (for now, at least) a better QB and a similar defense. I’m sad we missed out on him, but I’m not going to lose sleep over it.

We also missed out on Tyron Smith and Jonah Williams. Smith has barely been able to see the field for 50% of his games in the last 3 years, but when he’s out there, he’s ELITE. It sucks to see him go to the Jets on a small deal, but I understand why we’d have hesitance there after Trent Brown. Jonah Williams played LT for the Bengals, but they decided to move on and signed Orlando Brown Jr. last offseason. Williams ended up staying and played RT last season. Re-signing Onwenu makes that need redundant and while yes he could play LT, I’m also more interested in getting a prototypical LT that we can have for years to come.

As for our signings, this is a good recap. Welcome back Jacoby Brissett!!! While he’s an average (at absolute best) QB, he’s certainly a good teammate and should be a good mentor to whomever we draft at QB. No more of Bailey Zappe’s entitled bullshit. They cleaned house in the QB room and it’s nice to have a fresh start. In addition, we added good WR depth in Osborn, who Kirk Cousins just praised for being “better than the opportunities he was given” with the Vikings. Antonio Gibson, a former WR at Memphis, gives the Patriots a receiving back – something we haven’t had since James White. Austin Hooper adds depth at TE. Chukwuma Okorafor (OT) is absolutely better than Lowe, McDermott, Steuber, and Anderson, but he’s not the type of impact starter we need at LT. He’s more of a depth piece, who could start at LT if you’re less concerned about the safety of your QB. While that sounds funny, a mobile QB who can scramble, throw off-platform, and not sit in the pocket, might make the position slightly less of a critical need. A few other possible rotational adds are Jaylinn Hawkins at Safety and Armon Watts at DT.

Overall, I’ll give the Patriots a C+ in their first FA without Bill Belichick. I’m encouraged to see us keep our stars, and I’m happy we didn’t have a 2021 spending spree on marginal players again. While we missed out on filling our core needs, we’re lucky that this year’s draft is filled with depth at our critical positions.

Patriots 2024 Draft Needs

We have three major holes to fill (QB, WR, and OL) and a couple of other areas where depth would serve us best. We’ll do a deep dive on these three positions of need below and give more color around the depth areas later on in the mocks,

Quarterback

The Mac Jones era is dead. Going into last year, with our improved offensive coordination, I felt as if Mac needed to put up numbers similar to his rookie year to have a shot at still being our future. He didn’t come anywhere near that and thus, his time in New England has come to a close. As Mayo has said, there’s plenty of blame to go around here. While I do believe the Patriots ruined him with 3 offensive coordinators in 3 years, I don’t believe he had the mental fortitude to overcome it. I’m sure this is me rationalizing being completely wrong on Mac, but I guess I’m sort of happy it didn’t work out, in an odd way. We had more issues than just Mac. Had he “fought through it” and become an average to good QB, there’s 0% chance he would have stayed here in FA. Bill would’ve blamed losing the QB on Kraft and we would be in purgatory like we’ve been in since Tom left. This shit season ripped the Band-Aid off and led to a complete reworking of the offense and I’m certainly excited about it. Now, enough about Mac (finally!) and onto the future.

This year’s QB class is top-heavy. There are 4 guys who might end up going 1, 2, 3, 4 in this years draft. The best way I can describe my feelings about the QBs this year is through a nifty graph I made. Below is an estimation on each QB’s ceiling, floor, and bust potential. We’ll dig into each QB deeper, but this is a nice visual representation of our options this year, based on their big-board ranking.

Caleb Williams

Caleb is the clear front-runner here. Williams plays like Mahomes in that he’s super creative and can do things on the field that really nobody else can. He’s very accurate, has a great arm, and has great vision. Caleb wanting an ownership stake as a rookie is crazy talk but when people lose their minds over his pink painted nails and pink phones, you know they’re reaching for stories. Caleb is the most talented player in this draft and has been for the past 3 years. He’ll go #1 unless something absolutely shocking happens. In that case, he’ll go #2 to the Commanders, or whatever team pays the most to trade up for him. He’s special.

Jayden Daniels

Before you read further, here’s some required watching:

In that game, Daniels completed 17 of 26 (65.4%) for 372 and 3 touchdowns. He added another 12 for 234 and 2 TDs on the ground. What an absolute monster/record setting performance for him. The thing is, Daniels did it all year long in the SEC – the toughest conference in CFB.

Daniels transferred to LSU in 2022 after 3 years at Arizona State. Daniels has played in 55 college football games. He’s had more experience than anyone in the draft at the QB position. This year’s Heisman Trophy winner took the league by storm, rocketing up draft boards as he put together stellar performances game after game. His teammates have lauded his ability to have fun and also expect a lot of them – a true leader.

Surely the most electric QB in the draft, Daniels does have some flaws. First, he’s 6’4″ and 210. He’s a toothpick and the injury concerns are valid given his frenetic style. He’s certainly not a “run first” QB like Lamar Jackson, but he absolutely does tuck and run frequently. His short accuracy is really good, but many of his throws are to the sides and not over the middle. Some scouts are knocking his ability to throw over the middle, but to me that’s nit-picking. At LSU, they had 2 elite (first round) WRs who rarely crossed the field because they didn’t have to. Scouts grade his arm strength as good, not great, but in 2023, Daniels showed off an elite deep ball grade, throwing bombs to Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas Jr. with regularity and amassing 40 touchdowns on 4 INTs. His compact throwing motion allows for a quick release, making his arm strength less of a factor. If we were to draft Daniels, we certainly should look to pair him with a deep ball threat. I don’t believe Tyquan Thornton will cut it here as he can’t seem to figure out how to run a route.

VERDICT: I believe the NFL is trending towards more athletic QBs and Jayden fits this bill perfectly. I believe he’s got significantly less bust potential than Maye and a similar floor. Really his only knock is that there isn’t a good comparison player in the league right now. Some have compared his style of play to RG3 as a way to warn about injuries. But do you remember how elite RG3 was?

He’s unique.

Drake Maye

Maye has the prototypical body type of a QB. He’s tall, athletic, and has an absolute cannon. Going into the 2023 CFB season, there was some talk that Maye is actually QB-1 in this years draft. However, Maye regressed significantly from his brilliant 2022 season. He has the upside of a Josh Allen (though he’s not nearly as thick) or a Justin Herbert. However, unfortunately, he’s got the floor of a Mitch Trubisky, Zach Wilson, or Sam Darnold.

Here’s a prime example (every pass and run) where he went 16 of 36 (44.4%) for 209, a TD, and an INT, adding 10 for 67 on the ground against a mediocre Clemson team:

He certainly had stellar performances too, like his game against an average Syracuse team where he went 33 of 47 (70.2%) for 442 and 3 touchdowns, adding 14 for 55 and a TD on the ground.

Maye has the talent, there’s no question there. However, he seems to rush his decision-making and makes bone-headed throws that I’m certain will make fans think of Mac Jones. Just watch his lowlights film. Sometimes he just flat out misses his guys and that can be seen on his pro-day film, too. Maye has only started for 2 seasons and while it’s great he’s young (still 21), it’s also a risk given his lack of experience. You can make the argument that he lost his #1 guy in Josh Downs to the NFL draft last year, but Caleb lost Jordan Addison and didn’t skip a beat. Fact is that Maye is going to be a boom or bust. Either his talent will be enough for him to learn on the job, or he will fall by the wayside along with the majority of other guys with superior raw traits and little experience. If I had to put money on it, I think it’s more likely than not he busts, but it’s certainly not a given.

Don’t get me wrong here, if Daniels goes #2, I’m not going to be upset at taking Maye at #3. He is likely worth the gamble given his superstar potential, but it’s certainly a gamble. Now if somehow both are there at 3, I don’t believe it’s a question whether the pick should be Maye or Daniels. Give me Daniels and his superior accuracy and experience ALL DAY LONG.

J.J. McCarthy

J.J. McCarthy is the most polarizing player in this draft, by far. The Michigan QB has been lauded for many intangibles. From his use of meditation through Zen yoga to overcome depression, to grounding techniques, and his insistence on brushing his teeth with his left hand to increase brain plasticity, McCarthy is certainly an interesting dude. So was that other Michigan QB who thought drinking water prevents concussions.

On the field, McCarthy led the Wolverines to their first National Championship in decades. However, it was absolutely a run-first attack. Michigan has 7 OL who are likely to be taken in this year’s draft, along with their star RB Blake Corum. Roman Wilson, their #1 WR, has shown some pop but it’s clear that McCarthy was lacking weapons.

A true team player, McCarthy didn’t ever complain about the lack of passing in Michigan’s offense. Some will suggest it’s ludicrous to take a QB this high given he didn’t do much on the field, but I don’t believe it has anything to do with his talent. Harbaugh’s systems have always been “run-first” and have only required “game-manager” QBs. That’s certainly a possibility here for J.J. McCarthy.

McCarthy had a flawless pro-day. His feet looked excellent and he missed only 2 throws, fewer than both Daniels and Maye during their pro-days. I also think it’s worth noting that McCarthy competed in the combine. Williams, Daniels, and Maye all chose to sit out and wait for their pro-day so that they could throw to their guys. Daniels suggested he wanted to wait because then more people would be there and he could help use his stock to showcase his pass catchers given more eyes would be there, but I find that to be a stretch. I love the fact that McCarthy took the opportunity to compete and show everyone what he’s got. He’s a competitor and that grit is really hard to come by in the NFL.

As for his film, a good game to watch as far as creativity is the Rose Bowl win vs Alabama. McCarthy had some wildly impressive throws here, going 17 of 27 (63%) for 3 touchdowns and 0 INTs. He added 3 for 25 on the ground.

He’s definitely got the skillset to become a great pro QB in the NFL, but he absolutely is a raw prospect. Drafting McCarthy at #3 would be a bit of a stretch given that it would mean passing on Daniels or Maye (assuming the other goes #2). As you can see below, he’s had some really wild games – ranging from only attempting 8 total passes (and winning) against #10 PSU to dominating MSU with 4 TDs and a 78% completion percentage. He’s an absolute gamer.

Personally, I think people will love the moxie McCarthy will bring to the table. He’s absolutely a risk here at #3 but I think he’s the kind of leader you can build around. McCarthy doesn’t have the arm strength that Maye has and he’s smaller, too (6’3″ 202 lbs vs. 6’4″ 230 lbs), but he is more accurate and is able to make similar “off-platform” throws as Maye does. Plus, McCarthy does have the pro-style QB system experience that can translate to the NFL. If you forced me to make a decision between Maye and McCarthy, I’d hem and haw for a good couple of hours, but in the end, I’d give the slight edge to McCarthy. While Maye far and away has the physical upside, I just believe McCarthy is closer to being an NFL ready QB. If given the option to trade the pick in lieu of taking either, I’d be more akin to do that and grab a QB like Penix Jr. later while plugging other holes on offense.

Michael Penix Jr.

Penix Jr. is the best pure thrower in the draft, period. He’s got great arm strength and great accuracy and he moves well in the pocket. Why is he not in the top 5 then? Injury history. Penix Jr. just finished up his 6th year in college football, leading the Washington Huskies to a National Championship appearance, where they lost to Michigan. Penix Jr., who will turn 24 years shortly after the NFL Draft, suffered two torn ACLs and two shoulder issues, which ended all 4 of his seasons at Indiana, before transferring to Washington in 2022. Since arriving in Washington, he’s been fully healthy.

Penix Jr. has been in the conversation for the best QB in college football for 2 years now. He’s got a very strong arm and makes all of his reads with ease. A lot of his production has come from throwing outs to the sideline, which is generally a difficult thing – another reason why the above criticism of Daniels is silly. Below is every throw and run from Penix Jr. as his #7 Huskies took on #8 Oregon. In that game, Penix Jr. threw for 302, completing 22 of 37 (59.5%) with 4 TDs an 1 INT.

Simply put, Michael Penix Jr. is likely the most NFL-Ready arm in the draft, aside from Caleb Williams. Certainly Penix’s style is more NFL-ready. Penix is your prototypical pocket-passer… a smart QB who rarely runs (35 rushes and 8 yards in 2024). His draft stock is possibly the hardest to pin down. He could fall to the late 2nd round given his injury history, or he could end up going in the top 15 given how many QB-needy teams there are. I think it’s more likely that he’ll go in the first round, but it’s really anyone’s guess.

Bo Nix, Spencer Rattler, Michael Pratt, & Devin Leary

Bo Nix is the only one of this group who is a possible 1st rounder. He’s far and away my least favorite “hyped” QB in this draft and that’s solely because of where he’s likely to be taken. The former Tiger was just bad during his time in Auburn. He resurrected his career in the Pac-12 at Oregon and put on an absolute show last year, completing 77.4% of his passes for 4,508 yards, 45 TDs, and only 3 picks. It was an incredible season.

PFF does a really good job of analyzing Nix, so I’ll just leave this here:

With Nix, he’s got the traits and if last year is truly indicative of his talent, he’ll be a good QB. I just think last year was more of a fluke in the perfect style offense for him than it was a glimpse of his future talent. He has issues setting his feet and I just worry that won’t translate in the NFL.

Spencer Rattler, the former star of “QB1: Beyond the Lights” reinvented himself at South Carolina. Rattler has a similar style game to Caleb/Mahomes but it’s just significantly muted across the board. Rattler is a mid 3rd round pick I could see becoming an NFL starter. For the Patriots, if they decide to trade down and amass more draft capital, ultimately rolling with Brissett at QB in 2024, I could certainly see them taking a gamble on Rattler and having him learn for a year. Worst comes to worst, they’ll take an early QB next year, but perhaps they find a diamond in the rough. Rattler showed out at the Senior Bowl and the Combine and undoubtedly improved his draft stock.

Michael Pratt and Devin Leary are both dart-throws at best. Pratt had a good career at Tulane against poor competition and Leary transferred from NC State to Kentucky in 2023, where he went on to have a good season. Both looked good at the combine: Pratt had good accuracy and Leary’s arm strength showed. Neither are likely to start at the next level, but stranger things have happened. Both are likely to be day 3 picks, though Pratt is likely to go earlier than Leary.

Overall Recap for QBs

The position falls off dramatically after Williams, Maye, Daniels, McCarthy, Penix, and Nix. If you don’t take one of those guys, you’re just gambling on finding a diamond in the rough. A lot has been made of the fact that the Patriots HAVE to take a QB here at #3 because they have the chance to. I fundamentally disagree with that take for many reasons. First, those who say that conveniently forget about how many misses are in round 1. Yes, most star QBs are taken in round 1, but that isn’t a causal relationship. Just because you take a guy at 3 doesn’t mean he’s going to be great. Second, people tend to say “well look at next year’s class — it’s not deep” — to which I say “look at this year’s class.” Going into this year, Williams and Maye were the only 2 QBs who were a given to go in the top 10. Daniels had a Heisman year and boosted him to a top 5 pick (vs. the round 3-5 grade before). McCarthy wasn’t a draft prospect. Penix Jr. was a late 3rd day pick given injury history. Nix hadn’t reinvented himself. I think its’ foolish to look at next year’s class and think that it can’t develop over a season like this year’s has. Next year isn’t devoid of talent either: Shedeur Sanders (Colorado) and Quinn Ewers (Texas) are the projected top QBs and Drew Allar (PSU), Carson Beck (Georgia), and Riley Leonard (Notre Dame) all have the ability to play their way into the top 10 in the draft. It’s just to early to suggest that if we don’t take a QB this year, we are missing out.

Wide Receiver

Getting the next franchise QB is crucial, but the Patriots still need to prioritize getting their guy some weapons. I’m happy about the Bourne & Osborn additions, but these guys aren’t the true #1 receiver talent you need if you’re going to be seriously competitive. Good news! This class is absolutely loaded. From the first round through the third, the class this year is absolutely stacked. Some of the talent likely available in the 3rd round this year would typically be taken in the first or early second in most seasons.

In this section, I’ll do my best to categorize the available talent by round, naming some of the guys I like the best. It won’t be as comprehensive as the QB section because there are just too many guys that are good here.

Round 1

Starting at the top is Marvin Harrison Jr. who, in any other year, would likely go #1 overall. He’s that far away from the competition and some believe he’s got a real shot to eclipse the successful career his Hall of Fame father had. Harrison is tall, fast, with excellent hands, and near perfect body control. He should slot in anywhere as the #1 receiver. A good comparison for him would be a mix between Randy Moss and Davante Adams. Likely gone at #4 to the Cardinals (barring a trade down), Harrison will be there if the Patriots aren’t sold. Talking heads like to say it would be a criminal misuse of capital if we took him before a QB, but I highly disagree. A large reason Mac failed was the lack of weapons. It’s happened to numerous QBs who were every bit as hyped as the top 4 guys in this year’s class. Who’s to say that this time it’s different? I’d be worried about taking the star QB and not building around him, and then ruining another promising young QB. Now while my preference is to take a QB at 3, I certainly wouldn’t be upset at taking MHJ.

Malik Nabers is the speedy deep threat who hauled in 14 TDs from Jayden Daniels at LSU this year. Nabers is extremely fast and a he’s also got excellent hands. The best comp I can think of for him is Antonio Brown (minus the CTE). Next up is Rome Odunze, the cornerstone of the Penix Jr. passing attack at Washington. Odunze plays like a smaller, more nimble receiver (think Ja’Marr Chase), but he’s a full 3 inches taller. Odunze is aggressive to the ball and fights through contact with ease. He’s likely gone in the top 10, too, though things could change a bit if there’s movement into the top 10 from teams looking to get a crack at one of the top QBs.

After Odunze, things drop off a bit. I wouldn’t be shocked to see any of these names available when the Patriots pick at #34 in round 2, but if I were to bet on it, I’d expect Brian Thomas Jr., Adonai (AD) Mitchell, and Ladd McConkey are all off the board by then. Brian Thomas Jr. was the #2 at LSU but he stole the show at the Combine, running a 4.33 40-yard dash. His 1.5 second 10-yard split is impressive, too. Despite playing alongside Nabers, Thomas Jr. outscored him, hauling in a whopping 17 TDs in 2023. Thomas plays angry – like AJ Brown, albeit less massive. At 6’4″ and 205 lbs, Thomas Jr. has impressive footwork. He’s got an elite ability to push the ball downfield, but he could do more to improve his game getting off the line. AD Mitchell is of a similar build (6’4″ and 196 lbs) and speed (4.34 40-yard), but he’s got much more finesse than Thomas has. Mitchell is a matchup nightmare given his quick twitch moves and his speed – think Tee Higgins or DeAndre Hopkins. There are concerns about drops but he’s got true #1 ability. Rounding out round 1 is Ladd McConkey who was the “do-everything” guy at Georgia. McConkey plays like a bigger Julian Edelman. He’s unafraid to go into the dangerous places to make a play. McConkey isn’t an outside receiver, though he can line up there. For that reason, I think he’s a poor fit for the Patriots’ current needs. We already have Douglas in the slot and Osborn played out of the slot from time to time last year. I’d certainly be happy with the player should we take him, but I think he’s a bit redundant with the guys on our roster now, albeit better.

Rounds 2-3

This is the round you’re likely to see WRs fly off the board. That said, I’m not sure the Patriots are going to strike at WR at #34, unless one of the aforementioned guys actually falls. Many of the below are likely to be take in succession over the middle to late 2nd round. I could see the Patriots trying to trade back in the 2nd and pick up another mid-round pick if they have their eyes on any of these guys.

I want nothing to do with Troy Franklin, a tall WR from Oregon who seems like a bigger version of Tyquan Thornton. Roman Wilson, J.J. McCarthy’s binkie at Michigan, is intriguing, but #34 would be a stretch for him. The Hawaiian really flashed in his ability to get open during the Wolverines’ undefeated season. After Keon Coleman had the catch of the year, Ricky Pearsall one-upped him. Both guys would be a stretch at #34, too, but would be borderline #1/#2 guys. Keon Coleman was mocked in the top 10 forever leading into this season. A two sport athlete (basketball & football) at Michigan State, Coleman transferred to Tallahassee and was elite during his brief time at Florida State. Unfortunately for him, he had a poor Combine and was noticeably slower than his peers, running a 4.61 40-yard dash. He’s a true “go up and get it” guy, but the worry is that he’s too slow to truly separate, giving him DeVante Parker vibes. However, it’s absolutely possible he turns out to be much better. Pearsall is one of the more intriguing ideas in the class given that he’s played with Jayden Daniels. They overlapped at Arizona State before both made their way to the SEC; Daniels to LSU and Pearsall to Florida. PFF’s comp on Pearsall is actually Julian Edelman, which, for the same reason I’m leaning away from McConkey, I’m leaning no on Pearsall. However, if we were to take Daniels and pass on his connection with Brian Thomas Jr. through a trade back into the first, I’d change my tune should Pearsall fall a bit and be available when the Patriots select at #68.

Xavier Legette is probably my favorite target around this point in the draft. I certainly wouldn’t be shocked if he finds himself off the board earlier than round 3 due to his impressive speed and catch radius. At 6’3 and 227, he’s a big target who put a really impressive highlight film together in 2023. The knock on him is that he’s only done it for one season. Legette barely saw any targets in 2021 or 2022 (14 and 29 respectively), but burst on the scene with 97 last year. Too bad for the senior Gamecock. If he had another year of similar production, there’s no question he’d be a top 15 pick. The Patriots have met with Legette, so perhaps it’ll be our gain. Next up is Jermaine Burton out of Alabama. And while I usually have a soft spot for Bama WRs, Burton just doesn’t do it for me. He’s a tough guy but he’s never had more than 40 catches in college, and it wasn’t even last year. (39 in 2023; 40 in 2022; 26 in 2021, and 27 in 2020). I just don’t think he’s got the experience to be taken this high. He’s got the mentality to be a tough receiver, but it’s a no for me. Ja’Lynn Polk and Jalen McMillan were #2a and #2b at Washington last year. Polk is more physical and McMillan more finesse, but both had success all over the field. It’s really difficult to pick here, but I think Polk has a bit more upside given his excellent contested catch rate. By far the toughest player to predict a landing spot for is going to be Xavier Worthy, who broke the Combine’s record for fastest player ever with a 4.21 second 40-yard dash. I could see a team like the Bills or the Chiefs reaching for Worthy at the end of the first round solely due to his elite vertical abilities. If you’ve got a QB with a cannon, he might be the missing piece that could open up the offense significantly. That said, Worthy struggled mightily against press coverage and he’s not great at fighting off physical coverage. He does have great hands and his footwork is excellent, too, so he’s no one-trick-Tyquan-Thornton pony, but where he goes is anybody’s guess. Ainias Smith is one of my other favorite guys. A former RB, Smith plays like a bully on the field. Most people have a round 4 or 5 grade on him, but I’m confident a team’s going to take him earlier than expected. I see Ainias Smith as having Deebo Samuel upside, despite being a couple of inches smaller. Smith just makes people miss and while his measureables, speed, etc. don’t pop off the page, sometimes ability isn’t quantifiable. The Patriots have met with Smith.

Round 4-5

Devontez “Tez” Walker, the primary receiver of Drake Maye, should be available in the early 4th. A long-time mocked 1st rounder, Tez disappointed at UNC and he didn’t show up at the Combine either. Tez struggles in tight coverage. I think Drake Maye’s upside is the main reason Walker was mocked so high before, but once you see his film, you’re less excited. It’s fair to say that Maye did more with less in 2023, even with the regression. Javon Baker is a physical WR out of UCF. He was productive over two years, amassing 12 TDs on 108 catches for the Knights. Baker’s visited the Patriots on a top 30 visit, too. Johnny Wilson is super tall. No I mean, super tall (6’7″) and runs extremely well for his size (4.52 40-yard). Wilson’s intrigue is similar to Worthy, but he’s one of the worst in terms of drops. Tantalizing talent, but it just hasn’t come together yet. I feel like we tend to think guys who become stars after being taken late day 2 or early day 3 are accidents, but he’s a prime example of a guy who’s got the opportunity to put it all together and become an absolute steal. He’s worth the gamble if he lasts to day 3.

Malachi Corley makes plays. He’s not a great route runner, as evidenced by his previous running back experience. If he can hone the WR fundamentals, he could also become a major steal. There aren’t many guys who play with the violence he does. Brendan Rice is the second Hall of Famer’s son in this class. Although he isn’t on the same level as his father Jerry in terms of abilities, he does have similar intelligence. Brendan’s one of the best pure route runners in the draft. He should be able to plug-and-play with ease, but he’s unlikely to develop into a #1 or even #2 guy as he doesn’t have elite separation ability. A serviceable addition, he could have a long career given his high football IQ. Similar to Ainias Smith, I think Luke McCaffrey will go higher than the 6th round grade he’s got. A star at Rice University, McCaffrey has some of the elusive traits as his brother Christian and the receiving abilities out of the slot like his father Ed, although not as good as either. Luke originally started out at Nebraska, but as a quarterback. After he didn’t lock down consistent playing time, he decided to transfer to Louisville and then to Rice only four months later. McCaffrey played QB for another season, but ultimately moved back to WR in 2022 and had excellent success, catching 129 passes for 1,715 yards and 19 touchdowns over his final two years at Rice. It wouldn’t shock me to see a team aggressively pursue a WR turned dual-threat QB turned WR with a father and a brother who were both elite at their positions. The Patriots have met with McCaffrey.

Round 6, 7, and UDFA

Bub Means, out of Pittsburgh is worth noting given he played under new Patriots assistant WR coach Tiquan Underwood. Means had a productive Combine and has been seen as late target. Jalen Coker out of Holy Cross, is another who’s visited the Patriots and could offer some upside late. Anthony Gould and De’Corian Clark are both overlooked names in this draft who have shown flashes, too. Unfortunately anyone taken back here is no more than a gamble. While yes it’s true that some of these guys would typically be taken higher in a normal year due to this year’s depth, it’s also true that these guys belong as dart throws late on day 3.

Overall Recap for WRs

This year is jam-packed with talent and it couldn’t have come at a better time for the Patriots, who are in desperate need of a WR. While I see this need as critical for their future, I do think they’re in somewhat of a weird place here. As noted above, assuming they take a QB in round 1, I think a lot of the guys you’d want to see at #34 might be gone in round 1. If that’s the case, it likely means one of the OTs fell, so given the depth late, I’d rather take a shot at someone like Legette, Worthy, Polk, or Smith in the 3rd and get your tackle at #34. Should the Patriots decide to be bold, they could certainly move up in round 1 again and snag someone like Thomas Jr. or Mitchell. While this has never been in our DNA, it might make sense to trade a future pick for one of these guys.

The other option lurking around the corner is the trade market. Tee Higgins and Brandon Aiyuk are still available and would make for perfect fits. Both would likely cost a 2nd round pick or a combination of a 3rd and more. Despite the talent in this year’s class, it’s still just that. Talent. Higgins and Aiyuk have proven they could do it in the NFL, so I’d prefer to acquire one of them if given the opportunity.

Offensive Line

The Patriots offensive line was putrid last year. There isn’t a better way to put it. David Andrews was fine and Onwenu was excellent, but you’re not going to win many games if 60% of your line sucked or didn’t play. While Cole Strange still may become a good LG, and while Sidy Sow ended up being serviceable at RG, the line is still in need of an overhaul. Especially at LT where Trent Brown has departed. As noted above, Okorafor is a nice piece, but he really isn’t the cornerstone you want to protect your QB.

Good news for the Patriots again, as this year’s OL talent is really excellent and deep, too. Unfortunately there aren’t many elite LTs in this class that I can see the Patriots getting; however, there are a ton of super physical RTs that could make the move. I could see the Patriots doubling up here, taking a current LT while creating a transition plan for a better player to move over.

At the top of the class, you’ll find Joe Alt out of Notre Dame. He profiles as a Hall of Fame capable LT. While it’d be painful to see the Patriots take him at #3 given the amount of draft capital you can amass by trading back (and still potentially having a shot at him), you would not be mad at the player you get. He’s great. Taliese Fuaga is next. A physical RT out of Oregon State, he plays meaner than most and absolutely could become a future LT. Olu Fashanu (Penn State) is the next pure LT available. Once rumored to go top 10, Fashanu opted out of the Combine drills after an injury and has subsequently seen his stock fall. He should be available mid-first round. J.C. Latham (Bama) and Amarius Mims (Georgia) are another two guys who played exclusively at RT, but are big enough to move to LT. Mims, especially. Tyler Guyton is yet another RT who plays extremely athletically and could absolutely move over to the left. Finally, you have Troy Fautanu out of Washington. Fautanu had an absolutely terrific Combine. He was extremely light on his feet, but it might have something to do with his size. Although the former Husky played all but one snap at LT, he measured at only 6’4″ and 317 lbs. He’s likely to go in the 1st round given his versatility and athleticism, but I do worry that he’s a similar type pick to Isaiah Wynn, who also was also an undersized, but extremely athletic left tackle from a power school. Wynn, as we know, couldn’t handle the end and had to move inside. I worry Fautanu will have the same fate, and while he’s almost surely going to have a great career, I’d worry about making the selection. Rounding out the first round is Graham Barton, the left tackle out of Duke. Barton didn’t face the toughest competition but he has only allowed 4 sacks in the last two years. This past season was cut short due to injury, but he’ll be ready to go by week one.

Like I mentioned in the WR section, it’s really going to come down to whether tackles or receivers are prioritized at the end of the first. If we see WRs jump, we’re likely to see OTs fall. In round 2, you’re looking at Jordan Morgan (Arizona), Kingsley Suamataia (BYU), Kiran Amegadjie (Yale), and Patrick Paul (Houston). Out of all of them, Morgan and Paul are my favorites. Morgan is a good athlete and has the ability to stay at LT if he can get a bit stronger. That said, Morgan has excellent technique and his upside at LT is certainly all-pro as evidenced by his 3 sacks allowed in the last 2 years. Paul’s a force at 6’7″ and 315. He’s fallen a bit in the draft class as he didn’t move as well as some of his counterparts, but his size and wingspan alone make him worth a shot. He’s got a mean streak, too. Suamataia is super athletic, but I worry he profiles more as a RT despite playing LT at BYU. He’s a great run blocker, but I don’t think he has the lateral movement to stay at LT long term. Still, he’s worth a shot due to his athleticism. Amegadjie, the product of Yale, is hard to project. Yale, and FCS school, just doesn’t play elite talent. It’s tough to profile how he’ll transition to playing against the best of the best. However, he absolutely has the physical traits to make it in the league. Worth noting, he only played 4 games last year.

Blake Fisher was the other bookend on the Notre Dame line. With Alt at LT, there was no chance he was going to move, but he’s got the physical traits to make the switch. He should go sometime on day two. Of note, Fisher has met with the Patriots multiple times: at his Pro Day and then again on a top 30 visit. Roger Rosengarten, Fautanu’s opposite at Washington, is another name to target in round 3. As for others I like, Matt Goncalves is a LT out of Pitt and you can get him some time in round 4 or 5. That’s pretty much it for the pure tackles here. Sure there are other names, but they’d be no more than a gamble.

There are quite a few “combo” guys. My favorites in this category are Christian Jones out of Texas and Dominick Puni of Kansas. These guys are listed at tackles because they played there in college, but also have experience across the line. Puni, who’s 6’5″ didn’t allow a sack as the LT last year. His height and blocking posture are likely to prevent him from being a tackle in the NFL, but he’s certainly got the traits to make it as a lineman. At the Senior Bowl, Puni played every position, including center. That kind of versatility is exciting. Jones played exclusively at RT in 2023. The 6’6″ 321 monster played very physically at the senior bowl and really showed he could be a diamond in the rough. Like Puni, he worked out at every position. Javon Foster had some great reps at the senior bowl. A 3 year starting left tackle out of Missouri, Foster absolutely has some upside. He profiles as a 4th or 5th round pick and he’s likely to move inside given his 6’5″ 319 lbs frame. Last, but not least, is Tanor Bortolini out of Wisconsin. Fuck the Badgers. Okay, now that I’ve gotten that out of me, I’d be happy with him as a late round selection. He’s a center by trade, but he was one of the quicker lineman on his feet at the Combine. He could easily move anywhere in the interior, adding to our depth at multiple positions.

There are a few guards worth noting in this class, too. While it’s not a critical need for us, I do think adding a mid-round guard would serve us well. Perhaps it’s a combo guy from above, but if the Patriots want to go for a pure guard, there are a few really good ones this year. First off is Christian Haynes from UConn. Haynes was a four-year starting right guard for the Huskies. He’s got starting potential in the NFL due to his ideal build. The next, believe it or not, is from another New England school: Boston College. Christian Mahogany missed all of 2022 but started in ’21 and ’23 at right guard for the Eagles. A run-first guard, Mahogany could be the perfect fit for Alex Van Pelt’s run-first scheme. In Cleveland, the Browns ran the ball with force and if that’s to be executed in Foxborough, we’ll need better power on our line. Cooper Beebe is perhaps my favorite guard in this year’s class. He’s got a 4th/5th round grade but I think it’s possible he goes in the late 2nd, early 3rd. Beebe, out of Kansas State, played all over the place. While primarily at left guard, Beebe logged snaps at every position on the line except center over his career. He’s allowed 2 total sacks over the last 3 season and shockingly didn’t allow a hit on the QB all last year. Beebe is a below average athlete, but he has a super high football IQ. He’s got good size and technique, so I don’t think his lack of athleticism will hold him back in the NFL.

Patriots 2024 Draft Order

The Patriots have 8 picks this year (6 of their own, and an extra 6th from Jacksonville due to the Mac Jones trade, and a 7th from Chicago in exchange for N’Keal Harry). Good job turning two first round picks into a 6th and a 7th, Bill. Bravo!

• Round 1, Pick 3
• Round 2, Pick 34
• Round 3, Pick 68
• Round 4, Pick 103
• Round 5, Pick 137
• Round 6, Pick 180
• Round 6, Pick 193 (From JAX)
• Round 7, Pick 231 (From CHI)

Let’s get to it!

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Draft #1: QB @ #3 No Matter What

I find this to be the most likely scenario, so we’ll slot it first. In this draft, we’re going to assume Caleb Williams is gone at #1 and although we’re targeting Jayden Daniels at #3, we’re guessing he goes #2. This leaves us to choose between Drake Maye and JJ McCarthy.

Pick By Pick Analysis

The board played out as expected and despite my ever so slight preference to take McCarthy personally, I do think the Patriots would take Drake Maye here. That’s it for Day 1 for the Patriots as they’ve got their newest franchise QB. We considered trading back into the 1st round to get AD Mitchell, but decided we’d save the capital for later.

Day two begins for the Patriots with a trade. New England sends pick #34 to Tennessee for #38, 106 (4th), and #146 (5th) in this years draft. At #38 the Patriots select Everett, MA native Mike Sainristil, a highly competitive cornerback from Michigan. Sainristil is super aggressive with a very high football IQ. He is unafraid to help in the run game and his quick reaction time led him to 6 INTs this past year. He turned 4 of those into TDs, including the pick six to seal the deal on this year’s National Championship for the Wolverines. He would immediately fill the starting slot CB role that Marcus Jones owned before going down with a torn labrum last season. While this pick comes as somewhat of a shock to Patriots fans hoping to prioritize offense early, the Patriots can’t pass up on getting such a versatile player who might end up sneaking into round 1.

As Eliot Wolf said, the Patriots are “open to anything” including trading up or down in this year’s draft. Here, we actually do the former and target a high upside WR. The Patriots send #68 (3rd), #103 (4th), and #137 (5th) to the Bengals to move back into round 2, acquiring #49 (2nd) and #214 (6th). At #49, we take Xavier Legette, a WR out of South Carolina. As discussed above, Legette has WR-1 abilities, but he’s still raw, having only put one masterful season on record. Legette’s big-play ability and catch radius will give Maye a true go-to once he takes over as our starting QB.

Another trade up! In his final press conference, Eliot Wolf suggested the team is better than people are giving credit for. He said that about the WR position and the OL position, specifically. However, he also said that Chukwuma Okorafor would be our starting LT if the season began today. Given that Okorafor hasn’t played LT since college, I’m calling BS here. GMs are notoriously coy about what they want to do in the days leading up to the draft, so I’m not buying him here. The Patriots make a bold move to go get their future LT, and it costs them some capital next year as they trade a 2025 3rd round pick, #146 (5th acquired from Tennessee earlier), and #214 (6th acquired from Cincinnati earlier) to move up to #81 and select Patrick Paul, LT from Houston. The 6’7″ former Cougar started 44 games at Houston, all at Left Tackle. Okorafor might give Paul some time to adjust to the NFL, but he’s surely a better bet to protect Maye’s blindside long term.

Onto round 4. Unfortunately for the Patriots, the Chargers select Mar’keise “Bucky” Irving, a running back out of Oregon, one pick before us. Irving, who caught 55 passes out of the backfield this year, is one of the more slippery backs in the draft. While his pass blocking needs work, I see him as a nice complement to Rhamondre Stevenson and Antonio Gibson, adding more pass catching depth to our roster. Since he’s gone, we promptly strike a deal with the Jets, sending #106 (4th) and #193 (6th) in exchange for a pair of 4ths (#111 and #134). Again, we’re robbed as the Falcons select Ben Sinnott at #109, two picks ahead of our selection. Sinnott is a truly unique TE who’s lined up all over the field at Kansas State and he did meet with the Patriots at the Senior Bowl. Despite being snubbed twice, the Patriots are able to land a high upside WR in Ainias Smith at #111. Smith, as noted above, has some major playmaking ability. While he’s likely to line up in the slot, he does have the ability to move around.

After a couple of trade backs, it’s again time to move up. This time, the Patriots strike a deal with the Texans to move up 7 spots (from #134 to #127). To get it done, we give up #231 (7th). Here, we select Mohamed Kamara, an EDGE from Colorado State. The Patriots met with the 2023 Mountain West Defensive Player of the Year at the NFL Combine. Kamara is a powerful rusher who goes against the grain of what you typically look for in an EDGE. Listed at 6’1″ and 252 lbs, Kamara plays with “a will to conquer” that typically translates to the NFL.

The Patriots make a final deal to acquire another pick, sending #180 (6th) to Indy for #191 (6th) and #234 (7th). After having missed out on Irving in the 4th round, we find our running back depth here, selecting Dylan Laube out of the University of New Hampshire. We had our eye on Combine star, Isaac Guerendo, but he was taken 2 picks ahead of our selection. Laube’s been given some really high praise with NFL comparisons of Kyren Williams, Austin Ekeler, and Danny Woodhead, any of which would be an incredible late find. The former Wildcat has quick feet, is a major receiving threat out of the backfield, has great kick return skills, and a runs with a low center of gravity. The Patriots met with Laube at this year’s Senior Bowl, too. The 5’9″ 210 pound back came into the draft process as a likely late 7th, or possible Undrafted Free Agent (UDFA), but has improved his stock so much that it might be a stretch that he’s still available at 191 on day 3.

Our final selection, at #234, is Nathaniel Wilson, a linebacker who met with the Patriots on a top 30 visit. Wilson (6’2″ | 233 lbs) was the SEC Defensive Player of the Year in 2023. He amassed 137 tackles, 13 for loss, 10 sacks, 2 forced fumbles, 2 pass breakups, and 1 INT in his final year at Mississippi State University. You’re probably wondering how someone with those accolades falls this far, right? The NFL game has changed faster than college. Wilson isn’t great in coverage and he’s unlikely to catch up to players from behind. He’s a good blitzer and he’s great between the tackles, so he’s worth a shot, but he really profiles as more of a depth piece than someone who will truly make an impact at the next level. Still, the Patriots take the resume over the profile.

Closing Thoughts

A lot of movement here, but the Patriots come out the other side with some phenomenal upside. Maye gets two big-play receivers in Legette and Smith, a blindside blocker in Paul, and a great depth RB with starting potential in Laube. On the defensive side of the ball, we significantly upgrade the secondary, making it hard to match the physicality at CB. Christian Gonzalez, Mikey Sainristil, Jonathan Jones, and Marcus Jones will be a headache for any NFL offense. Kamara and Watson add some depth at the EDGE/LB position, but we really don’t get much speed there, which is a need.

Overall, I agree with the A- grade we get from PFF. While this draft has the potential to be an all-time hit, we also have a lot of bust potential here. Maye and Legette are unproven and young and Paul has some quickness concerns. Sainristil is likely the only sure-fire bet here, which is another reason the Patriots ultimately made the pick.

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Draft #2: Trade Down

Everyone is talking about the Vikings as the likely partner here given their recent deal to acquire pick #23. This means the Vikings could easily package something like #11, #23, their 2025 1st, and either another future 1st, a combination of 2nd’s and 3rd’s, or an actual NFL star. In order to entice the Patriots to make a move here, I’m guessing they’ll require #11, #23, their 2025 1st, and either Justin Jefferson or Christian Darrisaw. Both are due for major deals in the coming years as their rookie deals expire and that could entice the Vikings to make a move. The case for dealing Jefferson is that the Vikings hit on Jordan Addison and they believe he’s a #1. Whoever they take at #3 (presumably Drake Maye) would have Addison and Hockenson as his primary targets, which isn’t terrible. The addition of Aaron Jones out of the backfield helps, too. Alternatively, Rick Spielman, former GM of the Vikings, named Christian Darrisaw as a possible trade target. In Mike Reiss’s latest piece on the Patriots trading #3, he notes that for New England to make a move, they’d need a similar style package to what the Bears got from Carolina last year:

“Along those lines, the “pipe dream” for the Patriots, per Spielman, would be the Vikings trading receiver Justin Jefferson as part of a package that includes multiple first-round picks. Or maybe starting left tackle Christian Darrisaw.”

While trading down is enticing, I find it hard to believe the Vikings would include either player. If you’re targeting a QB, you really don’t want to lose a young star and starting LT or arguably the league’s best WR. It’s a no-win situation there. For the Patriots, trading down to #11 almost certainly means missing out on McCarthy, and possibly Penix Jr., too, should another team leap ahead of them. Now, there’s absolutely a case to be made that acquiring multiple 1st’s allows them to move up next year and that they can/should prioritize building the rest of the team before adding their franchise QB, I just don’t see that happening. That doesn’t mean they can’t trade down though!

In this draft, we’ll again assume Caleb goes #1 and Jayden Daniels goes #2.

Pick By Pick Analysis

The Patriots begin the draft with a massive trade back from #3 to the New York Giants, who move up from #6 to get Drake Maye. The Patriots get #6, #47 (2nd), #70 (3rd), and a 2025th 1st round pick in exchange for #3 and #103 (4th). Since the move back is only 3 spots, the Patriots package is smaller than what we talked about above, but still significant. Pick #4 is Arizona, who has committed to Kyler Murray and is in need of a WR. Pick #5 is owned by the Chargers, who just dealt Keenan Allen and lost Mike Williams in Free Agency. They also need a WR. Given that, and barring a team trading up, there’s a high likelihood that the Patriots could still get McCarthy at #6. Even if another team trades up to get McCarthy, we’d have the second pick of the litter at WR (Harrison, Nabers, or Odunze), or could take the best LT in the class in Joe Alt. The strategy works and the Patriots select another Michigan QB in J.J. McCarthy at #6 overall.

The newly acquired picks allow the Patriots some flexibility for this year. As the clock turns to the Cowboys at #24, the Patriots jump to deploy that capital, including two of their recently acquired picks. They jump back into the first to draft Amarius Mims, the 6’7″ Georgia Bulldog Right Tackle. The full deal ends up being #47 (2nd), #70 (3rd), #180 (6th) and next year’s 2nd rounder for #24 overall and #56 (2nd). Mims has sky high potential and many believe he’s going to make the move to the left side in the NFL. Wolf will start Okorafor while Mims learns. The Patriots have started this draft off with a bang, solidifying the future at both QB and LT.

A quick deal with the Chargers at #34 sends the Patriots down a few spots to #37, but they acquire another 4th rounder for the trouble. At #37, New England selects Xavier Legette. While this is a bit of a reach, New England is going to need a guy who’s willing to go up and get the ball, especially with McCarthy’s skillset. New England isn’t done with their wheeling and dealing, as they move up to #48 to select Roman Wilson, J.J. McCarthy’s favorite WR in college. Unlike the past, the Patriots are ready to invest at the position and they prioritize grabbing existing chemistry to speed up the development. The full deal sends #56 (2nd), #135 (5th), and #231 (7th) to Jacksonville for #46 (2nd) and #236 (7th).

Next up is pick #56. Here, we are targeting some defensive help as we’ve already plugged major offensive holes. After missing out on Chris Braswell, who went to Carolina at #65, the Patriots trade down again, sending #68 and a 2025 5th to Washington for a pair of 3rd round picks (#78 and #100). As the pick nears, the Patriots decide not to risk it and to move up a couple of slots, trading #78 and #105 (4th) to Denver for #76, #121 (4th) and #136 (5th). Here, they select an EDGE rusher out of Kansas, Austin Booker. The former Golden Gopher transferred to Kansas and had a great year, racking up 8 sacks and 38 pressures. He’s got great arm length and has met with the team on a Top 30 visit. Booker is very raw. He’s played a grand total of 505 snaps over 15 games, which is easily the least experience for a guy going this high. NFL.com lists his comparison as Maxx Crosby, so we choose the stratospheric upside and we’ll be patient as he learns from veterans like Judon, Uche, and Tavai.

At #100, we select one of my favorite TEs in this class, Ben Sinnott. The 6’4″ prospect out of Kansas State does a little bit of everything well. He’s a solid blocker and receiver who’s continued to improve each year since he walked on as a freshman, turning down a scholarship to play at South Dakota. He’s added 40 lbs to his frame over the last 4 years and he’s remained adequately fast for a TE (4.68 40-yard dash). Sinnott should fit in well in our TE room and has a chance to be #2 over Hooper by the end of the year.

At #121, NE trades back yet again, turning a 4th and a 6th into a 4th, 5th and 6th this year. At the newly acquired #126, New England selects Mohamed Kamara, who we covered a bit above. The final trade of the night is with the Commanders again. New England sends #136 and #236 to Washington for #152 and a 2025 5th rounder. At #152, we select Christian Jones, a Tackle out of Texas. Jones, as covered above, might move inside, but provides an excellent depth option for our line. The saying goes “you can never have enough lineman” and the Patriots prioritize versatility here.

The biggest “reach” as PFF sees it is our selection of Dylan Laube, RB out of New Hampshire at #169. As we noted in the previous draft, he’s got too much potential to pass up. New England gets their 2020s version of Danny Woodhead/Rex Burkhead. And finally, rounding out the draft is our selection of Jaylin Simpson, a safety out of Auburn at pick #219. Simpson showcased his instinctive ball skills at the Senior Bowl, where he met with the Patriots this past winter. Simpson, a former 4-year CB, has recently moved to Safety after he struggled to keep up with WRs outside. At Safety, that isn’t as big a deal, so Simpson has a chance to stick there and become a rotational player.

Closing Thoughts

This draft proves that you can still build a really good roster while trading back. The Patriots fill nearly every single glaring hole with some high upside players in this draft class. In addition, they improve their capital for next year. While they dealt a 2nd rounder to move back into the first, the Patriots end the draft owning two 1st’s (theirs and NYG), their own 3rd and 4th, Washington’s 5th, and their own 6th and 7th. If this haul and that capital doesn’t get you excited, not much will. Except, of course, the next mock draft.

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Draft #3: Dream Scenario

In this draft, the Patriots luck out with Drake Maye going #2 overall leaving my favorite QB, Jayden Daniels, available at #3. The Patriots are then aggressive in building around him with playmakers. As I mentioned above, a guy like Daniels might lessen the need for a LT early. While that sounds counterintuitive, Daniels is going to be able to scramble away from pressure. We’ll look to get additional blindside protection, but if you’re taking Daniels at 3, your calculus changes a bit compared with those who can’t easily get away from pressure. We’ll look to draft WRs with whom Daniels already has chemistry so that he can hit the ground running in the NFL. The top two targets in this year’s class that fit the bill are Brian Thomas Jr. (together at LSU) and Ricky Pearsall (together at Arizona State).

Ok, so here we go!

Pick By Pick Analysis

The pick is in! Jayden Daniels falls to #3 and the Patriots take approximately 1 second to run the paper up to the podium. Daniels just has so much upside as both a passer and a rusher. Patriots fans are about to get an exciting product again.

Daniels is the most NFL ready QB behind Caleb Williams. While I would expect Daniels to sit at the beginning, I’d also anticipate him taking over by mid-season. To make sure he’s successful, Eliot Wolf & Co. are aggressive in acquiring assets to build around his new franchise QB. The first of which is accomplished with a trade back into round 1 to acquire Brian Thomas Jr. at #27. Night one is a rousing success.

Overnight, the Patriots announce they’ve acquired Brandon Aiyuk from San Francisco in exchange for 2025 2nd rounder, this year’s #137 (5th), and a 2025 7th rounder. This deal is much stronger for the 49ers than what Buffalo acquired by trading Stefon Diggs earlier this month. The Bills acquired a 2025 2nd rounder in exchange for Diggs, a 2025 5th rounder, and this years #189 (6th). Both Aiyuk and Diggs are due new contracts at the start of next year, and are technically rentals. Aiyuk is younger though, so he’s likely to require more than Diggs. The Pats roll into day two of the draft, having firmly solved the needs at QB and WR.

The fireworks are on pause for a while as the Patriots make a flurry of moves to reestablish draft capital after their spending spree the day before. Once all is said and done, they’re on the clock again at #81, where they select Austin Booker out of Kansas, who we covered in the previous draft. Another deal, but this time we’re trading up! At #90, New England selects my favorite Guard, Cooper Beebe. I’ll zoom on as I made sure to cover Beebe above already.

Next up is pick #121. While we could have selected another Tackle here to help sure up the line, we decide to take Wolf at his word. Okorafor could start at LT and be great. He could also wind up at RT and we see Onwenu take on another challenge. Either way, adding Beebe helps with the flexibility on the line, so we’re turning our focus elsewhere. Here, we select the talented Kris Abrams-Draine from Missouri. Abrams-Draine met with the Patriots at his Pro Day. A bit undersized, the former WR has a knack for the ball on the defensive side and makes up for his small frame (5’11” and 178 lbs) with his athleticism. New England’s press-man scheme seems to fit his game well, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Patriots move to add their future CB-2.

Luke, I am your father. That’s right, at pick #136, we select Luke McCaffrey. Another playmaker for Jayden, McCaffrey can line up anywhere, from WR to RB. Additionally, his experience as a college QB could spell more trick plays similar to what the Patriots did with Edelman and Meyers.

Finally, the Patriots close out the draft with Jaylin Simpson at #226. Not much more to say about him than I did in the previous draft, so I’ll leave it there.

Closing Thoughts

Man, would this be special. It’s not that far fetched, in my opinion, either. The Patriots have been calling on teams in search of a WR trade, and this one makes too much sense. I absolutely love the idea of surrounding your QB with as much help as you can, especially if there’s chemistry already built. I was hoping the Patriots would help Mac Jones by drafting former teammates Jameson Williams or John Metchie, or by trading for Jerry Jeudy, but it didn’t happen. Why can’t we copy teams’ success? Just look at the Bengals with Burrow and Chase, who played together at LSU, or the Eagles, who have former Alabama stars Jalen Hurts and DeVonta Smith, or the Jags, who drafted Travis Etienne to pair him with Trevor Lawrence, or Tua and Jaylen Waddle. The list goes on and it’s time for the Patriots to take note.

This draft doesn’t totally deplete 2025’s capital either. We end up with our own 1st, 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th, and Denver’s 7th, but we have nearly completely solved our needs in a single draft. Let’s do it.

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Draft #4: BONUS!

Tom Brady is back! A couple of weeks ago, Brady said he wouldn’t rule out a return if a team called. He said it would be up to the league as his partial ownership of the Raiders lies in waiting. The podcast host mentioned the 49ers and Brady retorted with “or the Patriots.” While a bit of a pipe dream, let’s live in this land for a bit because, fuck it, it’s fun.

The tricky thing here is that the Patriots wouldn’t know whether or not Brady would be back by the time of the draft unless they act insanely fast. However, as noted in the “trade down” draft above, Jerod Mayo has made comments about how they might not have a problem rolling out Jacoby Brissett in 2024 as their primary QB. I think a lot of fans are expecting a QB to be taken in round 1 this year, but it certainly wouldn’t surprise me to see them wait. What if Jayden Daniels is the only QB they love and he’s gone at #2?

So perhaps they choose to build the roster AND THEN get the quarterback. What would it look like? What if that QB was Tom again? Let’s have a look.

Pick By Pick Analysis

We make the identical trade with the Giants as we did in the “trade down” scenario. Once there at #6, we select Joe Alt, the 6’8″ Left Tackle from Notre Dame. Alt is extremely athletic, he’s insanely strong, and he’s already being thought of as having Hall of Fame upside. If the Patriots have other plans at QB, he’s as sure as it gets in the draft. The Patriots line is now actually very impressive with two bookends and depth that teams would drool over, and a decent interior, and a long time veteran center in David Andrews.

The Patriots open day two with another selection that will drive the fan base crazy – remember, we don’t know that Brady’s back yet. Kool-Aid McKinstry falls into the Patriots lap at #34. It’s beginning to look like one of McKinstry or Sainristil will get bumped out of round one and this time it was McKinstry. McKinstry fits the need better as another outside corner, whereas Sainristil is better suited in the slot. This would give the Patriots two very young “lockdown” corners.

Things finally get interesting as Wolf is able to engineer a deal to send A.J. Brown to his childhood favorite team. Brown has admitted that he “cried his eyes out” when the Patriots passed on him in 2019, instead selecting N’Keal Harry in round 1. The round 1 trade with the Giants gave the Patriots an extra 1st round pick, making this trade a lot easier to accomplish. All in all, the Patriots ship their own 2025 1st, along with #47 (2nd) and #137 (5th) to Philadelphia for A.J. Brown, #50 (2nd) and #120 (4th). Little does he know, he’ll get to play with his favorite player ever, Tom Brady. This seems like a pipedream, but the Patriots have called Philly already to assess what it would take.

Hunter Henry is a great leader, but this is likely his last major contract. At #50, the Patriots select Ja’Tavion Sanders, the extremely athletic TE out of Texas. Sanders is still a bit raw, but with Henry and Hooper in town to teach, he’s going to be able to refine his skillset. At 6’4″ and 243, Sanders is built like a A.J. Brown and would be an ideal vertical threat to add to the Patriots roster. And we know Tom loves his tight ends.

Next up is pick #68 followed by #70. The Patriots strike a deal with Las Vegas to move back, trading #68 (3rd) and #180 (6th) for #77 (3rd), #112 (4th) and #148 (5th). With a more distributed set of picks, the Patriots find themselves taking more elite athleticism at #70. Jaylen Wright was the talk of the combine amongst the running back group. He scored a 93 on the athleticism tests after running a 4.38 40-yard dash and registering an insane 11′ 2″ broad jump. Wright is an explosive back with 3 down upside, but he’ll need to improve his vision a bit in order to rely less on bouncing outside and more on finding the interior seams. Wright instantly upgrades the RB room and at 21 years old, he absolutely could become the future of the position in Foxborough. The best pro comparison for Wright is Melvin Gordon.

Unfortunately Austin Booker comes off the board early, and the Patriots decide to move out of their pick #77, down a couple slots to #79. In return they upgrade pick #148 to #109. Here, the Patriots take a shot at Spencer Rattler, the talented QB out of South Carolina. Rattler has a ton of upside. Rattler has great footwork, moves very well out of the pocket, has a “good enough” arm, but needs to improve his vision. A year or two behind Tom Brady should do wonders for him, but even if he doesn’t pan out, you’re not going to be upset at losing a 3rd rounder over it.

After missing Booker a few picks earlier, the Patriots trade vow not to miss out again, but they need to strike a deal to grab their guy. New England strikes a deal to move up to #87 in their final move of the night, sending #109 (4th) and #112 (4th) to Dallas in exchange for #87 (3rd) and #233 (7th). Here, they select another wildly athletic EDGE in Jalyx Hunt. The 6’4″ Husky registered 15 sacks and 50 hurries over the past 2 seasons at Houston Christian University after transferring from Cornell. Hunt scored a 79 on his athleticism tests after a 10′ 8″ broad jump. If he can add more mass, he’ll become a true threat to rush the pass in the NFL.

Pick #120 is used on Luke McCaffrey, who’s been mentioned above, and would be an excellent fit with Brady. A long wait mid way through day 3, but we make it to #193, where the Patriots select Jaylen Harrell, the former Michigan Wolverine EDGE rusher. Harrell’s got an impressive wingspan but is less aggressive than you’ll need to see at the next level. Frank Crum got an unofficial first round grade at the Combine due solely to his hair. In reality, the Crum pick is yet again about athleticism. The Wyoming native and former UW Cowboy is 6′ 8″ and still scored 3rd amongst all OTs at the Combine for athleticism. He may never turn into anything, but it’s worth a shot. Finally, we end this draft at pick #233 by selecting Will Reichard, a Kicker out of Alabama. Reichard is on autopilot inside the 40 yard line (95% over the last 4 years) and has the leg to make 50-plus. His accuracy is why the Patriots make the move here. While Chad Ryland has better overall upside, we all saw how bad he was in his rookie year. Taking an insurance kicker is a good idea that’ll at least force Ryland to win the job out of camp.

Closing Thoughts

Even though this is “The Brady Draft” and we are missing out on a top QB at 3, I think fans would be (and should be) thrilled with this class, even if Tom doesn’t return. If he were to return, he’d have great protection, a true #1 WR in AJ Brown, and a couple of new toys on offense in Sanders, Wright, and McCaffrey. The upgrades on defense should take what was already a top 10 unit, even without Judon and Gonzalez, to a top 3 squad. This would surely put New England in the hunt for the division title and a good bet to make the playoffs.

Final Remarks

Between the four mocks, there are a total of 29 unique players drafted. There are 257 total picks this year, so we’ve covered approximately 11% of the picks in this draft. Let’s see how many actually happen! Below is how I would rank the players who are a part of the three mocks:

1. Jayden Daniels, QB – LSU
2. Joe Alt, LT – Notre Dame
3. J.J. McCarthy, QB – Michigan
4. Drake Maye, QB – UNC
5. Brian Thomas Jr., WR – LSU
6. Amarius Mims, OT – Georgia
7. Kool-Aid McKinstry, CB – Alabama
8. Mike Sainristil, CB – Michigan
9. Xavier Legette, WR – South Carolina
10. Ja’Tavion Sanders, TE – Texas
11. Patrick Paul, LT – Houston
12. Roman Wilson, WR – Michigan
13. Jaylen Wright, RB -Tennessee
14. Austin Booker, EDGE – Kansas
15. Jalyx Hunt, EDGE – Houston Christian
16. Spencer Rattler, QB – South Carolina
17. Ainias Smith, WR – Texas A&M
18. Luke McCaffrey, WR – Rice
19. Cooper Beebe, G – Kansas State
20. Ben Sinnott, TE – Kansas State
21. Mohammed Kamara, EDGE – Colorado State
22. Kris Abrams-Draine, CB – Missouri
23. Christian Jones, OL – Texas
24. Dylan Laube, RB – New Hampshire
25. Jaylen Harrell, EDGE – Michigan
26. Jaylin Simpson, S – Auburn
27. Nathaniel Watson, LB – Mississippi State
28. Frank Crum, OT – Wyoming
29. Will Reichard, K – Alabama

It’s going to be fascinating to see what the Patriots ultimately do. The bar for drafting offensive talent has been set extremely low, so as long as New England picks from any of the names listed (even if not mocked), I’ll be happy. If we can come out of the weekend by solidifying two of the top 3 positions (QB, WR, OT), I’ll label it a success. Happy drafting!